Damaging Wind in Texas, March 25, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
255 AM CST MON MAR 25 2002

SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EAST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD  APPROACH MCCURTAIN COUNTY BY
SUNRISE TODAY. STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS IN PLACE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BUT AS FRONT APPROACHES THE CAP WILL ERODE AND THE
INCREASE IN LIFT SHOULD AID SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MAINLY
THIS EVENING AS DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND
1500 J/KG ARE EXPECTED. THE CAP SHOULD LIFT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
FORM A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT BY AFTERNOON IN NE TX. AS TROUGH
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
DEEPENING AND MOVE RAPIDLY NE THROUGH AR TONIGHT. STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT LATER TODAY AND WITH
500 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -20C SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. A STRONG 700
MB TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE RAPIDLY EAST INTO EASTERN OK AND EAST
TX BY 00Z. FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP A
SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND THEN MOVE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE EAST HALF
OF ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE LINE. STRONG LIFT IN AR
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DEEP SHEAR WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF FORECAST
AREA. WILL ADD SEVERE THREAT TO ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NEW MRF SHOWS NEXT CHANCE OR RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A
CUT OFF UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO LOUISIANA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. COULD BE A WET EASTER WEEKEND.

WENT ABOVE FWC GUIDANCE TODAY WEST AND NORTH WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF FRONT BUT IF THE FRONT SPEEDS UP TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY RISE
A FEW DEGREES NORTHWEST. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THEN WARM BACK TO THE
70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FCSTID = 9
SHV   75  45  59  39 /   50  60   0   0
MLU   77  51  60  38 /   30  70  10   0
TXK   72  41  57  37 /   60  60   0   0
TYR   72  39  58  39 /   60  60   0   0
LFK   77  45  63  39 /   40  60   0   0

.SHV...NONE.