Heavy Snow in Indiana, December 24 to 25, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
200 PM EST TUE DEC 24 2002

FORECAST FOCUS AGAIN ON SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT.

AT 1845Z RADAR INDICATED SNOW/SLEET DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN SXNS OF
THE FORECAST AREA /FA/. SOME OF THIS NOT REACHING THE GROUND. TEMPS
WERE IN THE 30S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S. SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS
ACROSS WESTERN TN.

MODELS HAVE PRETTY MUCH COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH MOST FEATURES THIS
RUN. ETA MAY BE OVERDOING QPF AMOUNTS PER LOOKING AT FORECAST FOR
18Z. WILL USE A BLEND OF MODELS FOR MUCH OF FORECAST BUT WILL CUT
QPF A LITTLE.

SNOW TAKING ITS TIME TO DEVELOP ACROSS FA THIS AFTN. ALSO ATMS IS
INITIALLY DRY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A SMALL WARM LAYER ALOFT ACROSS
SRN FA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SLEET...AND PERHAPS FZRA...BUT NOT
MUCH. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S...EVAP COOLING WILL LEAD TO
FROZEN PRECIP MOST AREAS. WILL STILL MENTION MIX PRECIP EARLY IN THE
S.

850 LOW PROJECTED TO MOVE ALONG OH RIVER WHICH WOULD PUT FA IN
DECENT SNOW AREA. THIS IS ALONG WITH SOME FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
AND GOOD Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE VALUES. MODEL SNOW FORECASTS SHOW 4-6
INCHES ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF FA. QPF AND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
SUPPORT THIS. GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE WILL CONTINUE SNOW ADVISORY AND
WINTER WX ADVISORIES. WILL MENTION 4-6 IN THE SNOW ADVISORY AREA AND
2-4 IN WINTER WX ADV AREA.  WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT MAV TEMPS LOOK TOO
COLD WILL GO CLOSER TO ETA VALUES.

WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS IN NERN FA ON CHRISTMAS AS SYSTEM PULLS
OUT. WILL GO CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUM SHOULD
OCCUR. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS.

ISC GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT. THANKS TO IWX FOR COORDINATION. FURTHER
COORDINATION WELCOMED.

.IND...
SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR ZONES
INZ021...INZ028>031...INZ035>049...INZ051>054...INZ060.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR  TONIGHT FOR ZONES
INZ055>057...INZ061>065...INZ067>072.

CS

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-251100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
338 PM EST TUE DEC 24 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...

SNOW WILL SPREAD OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING AND BECOME HEAVY
AT TIMES. THE HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL LIMIT VISIBILITY AND MAKE ROADS
SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION BY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE VINCENNES AND SEYMOUR AREAS...TO 4 TO 6
INCHES IN THE INDIANAPOLIS...TERRE HAUTE AND LAFAYETTE AREAS. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT...CAUSING SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE SNOW ADVISORY AND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
INDIANAPOLIS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SNOW WILL REMAIN LIKELY IN THE KOKOMO AND MUNCIE AREAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE. ACROSS THE REST
OF CENTRAL INDIANA...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW...BUT LITTLE IF
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
INDIANA WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT VISIBILITY AND MAY MAKE TRAVEL
HAZARDOUS.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WINTER WEATHER SPOTTERS AND SNOWFALL OBSERVERS ARE REQUESTED TO
REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
INDIANAPOLIS.

ZIMMERMAN