Flash Flooding in Indiana, April 28, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
315 PM EST SAT APR 27 2002

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HIGH WINDS ARE THE MAIN WEATHER
PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT. SFC ANALYSIS AT 19Z SHOWED A 992 MB SURFACE LOW
OVER SE NEBRASKA AND A WARM FNT EXTENDING TO WESTERN KENTUCKY.
EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE BIG PICTURE...THE
MESO-ETA AND ETA SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION AND THEY ALSO WERE A LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THUS OUR FORECASTS ARE MODELED CLOSER TOWARDS THE
MESO-ETA IN THE FIRST 60 HOURS AND CLOSER TO THE AVN LATER ON.

THE ETA AND MESO-ETA SHOWS H8 WINDS INCREASING TO 70 KNOTS OVER OUR
CWA BY LATE EVENING AND CAPES INCREASING TO 1800 J/KG BY MIDNIGHT.
SPC HAS US UNDER A MODERATE RISK TONIGHT.  MESO-ETA SHOWS A DRY SLOT
PUSHING EAST INTO OUR AREA BUT IT ALSO CONTINUES TO HINT AT A
POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE DVLPG OVER W CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY LATE EVENING
AND TRACKING EAST ACROSS OUR CWA OVERNIGHT.

FNT COULD STILL BE IN OUR FAR SE CWA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL
MENTION A FEW EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS THERE. ON SUNDAY MODELS
ALSO SHOW SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVING INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA
DURING THE DAY.

AVN SHOWS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVG THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
AVN/MRF KEEPS A STNRY FRONT OVER THE OHIO VLY MIDWEEK AND A SFC WAVE
MOVG EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VLY WED AND EARLY THURSDAY.

TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVS NORTH
ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. ON SUNDAY WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN FWC/MAV TEMPS. THE ETA AND AVN BROUGHT THE COOLER AIR IN A
LITTLE QUICKER SUNDAY BUT THE ETA SHOWS A LITTLE MORE DRYING OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHICH MAY INDICATE A LITTLE MORE
SUNSHINE.

.IND...NONE.

JEH

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-280400-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
904 PM EST SAT APR 27 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT...

CENTRAL INDIANA IS UNDER A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE OVER INDIANA
TONIGHT. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NORTH OF ST LOUIS AROUND SUNSET. OTHER
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVLOPE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. SCATTERED STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE LAFAYETTE AND
TERRE HAUTE AREAS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2AM AND INTO THE INDIANAPOLIS
AREA BETWEEN 2AM AND 4AM. LARGE HAIL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT
IN THE WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS AND LATER IN THE NIGHT ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL INDIANA. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE
LOCAL MEDIA OUTLET FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

&&
HAINES