Flooding in Indiana, April 1 to 2, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
200 PM CST SUN MAR 31 2002

PRIMARY NEAR TERM CHALLENGE IS CLEARING/SCOURING OUT OF LOW CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR
THIS EVENING AS COMMA HEAD CONTINUES ITS ROTATION EWARD ACROSS LWR
MS VALLEY. BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS ALREADY SEEN SCOURING OUT EARLY PM AS
FAR EAST AS OH RIVER AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
WITH MODELS SHOWING A DECENT GRASP ON THIS FIELD AND ITS TIMING.
UPSTREAM CLOUDS IN NRN MO ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND
BASE OF UPR TROF BEARS WATCHING...BUT MODELS SHOW THIS FIELD OF
CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF FA AND WHILE WE WONT PLAN ON THEIR
INCLUSION ATTM...WE WL WATCH IT CLOSELY UP THRU PRESS TIME. SOME
CONCERN FOR PTCHY FOG ACROSS MAINLY SRN TIER OF COUNTIES WHERE MOST
RAIN FELL...AS SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AND WINDS DROP OFF WITH SURFACE
HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD...AND SO WL PROBABLY AT LEAST INCLUDE ITS
POSSIBILITY.

TUE PCPN CHC REMAINS IN TACT ALTHOUGH SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE
NOTED. ETA SUGGESTS PRIMARILY WARM SECTOR FOCUSED WITH EVEN HINTS AT
ELEVATED THUNDER POSSIBILITY (SHOWALTERS DROPPING TO NR ZERO)...WHILE
AVN CONTINUES PCPN MAINLY ALONG OR BEHIND FRONT WITH LESS
DESTABILIZATION. W/PRIMARY LOW SO FAR NORTH AND LIMITED GULF
INPUT...WL HOLD OFF INTRO OF THUNDER AND KEEP GOING LOW CHC POPS.

NEW EXTENDED GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS MID WEEK COOL DOWN IN NW FLOW
BUT PERHAPS NOT AS COOL AS PREVIOUS RUNS/GOING FCST AS BOTH FMR AND
MEX DATA JUMP MARKEDLY LATER IN WEEK. WL GO THAT WAY WITH CNTL U.S.
RIDGING MOVING IN BUT NOT BITE ALL THE WAY GIVEN THE PAST SEVERAL
RUNS TREND OF COOLING. MRF HINTS AT DAY7 PCPN AGAIN BUT WL WAIT FOR
MORE CONSISTENCY AND JUST INCREASE THE CLOUDS FOR NOW.

.PAH...NONE.
DH