Damaging Winds in Illinois, July 9, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
215 PM CDT TUE JUL 9 2002

FCST CHALLENGES INDLUDE PCPN CHANCES THIS EVENING...THEN RETURN OF
PCPN CHANCES WITH ANOTHER S/WV...ALREADY EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS
OF OUR REGION TMRW.

TSRA FINALLY STARTING TO FIRE ALONG WIND SHIFT LINE FM SOUTH OF
CHICAGO TO UIN. ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA CONT TO AFFECT NRN IL.
THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPED ALONG WINDSHIFT LINE ACRS NRN IL...WITH WEAK
S/WV ENERGY NOTED IN THIS AREA ON SAT LOOP. WLD EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCT TSRA ACROSS AREA THIS EVENING. GREATEST THREAT WL BE ACRS EAST.

SECOND WAVE CLEARLY EVIDENT ON SAT LOOP JUST NORTH OF NERN MT.
MODELS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON ITS LOCATION AT 18Z...AND CONT TO BRING
IT THROUGH NRN PLAINS TMRW...DIVING IT SEWRD TOWARD MID-MISS RIVER
VALLEY BY EARLY THU. MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING FASTER ON ITS
MOVEMENT...BRING POPS INTO THE FCST ACRS MUCH OF WRN IL TMRW AFT.
NOCTURNAL PARAMETERS SUGGEST WRN AREAS REMAIN ON PERIPHERY OF
THETA-E AXIS TMRW NIGHT...WITH 850 WAA AND MOIST ADV NOTED. WL KEEP
POPS GOING THRU THE NIGHT ACRS THE SAME AREA. WLD EXPECT PCPN
CHANCES TO SPREAD ACRS ENTIRE CWA THU AS THE WAVE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
EWRD. AS THE WAVE WEAKENS...THE QPF TRENDS SHLD BECOME MORE DIURNAL
IN NATURE.

THE AVN IS NOW CUTTING OFF THE WAVE AND MOVING IT SOUTH TOWARD THE
ARKANSAS REGION BY THE WEEKEND. EARLIER RUNS SUGGESTED THE WAVE WLD
TAKE MORE OF AN EWRD TURN. IN EITHER CASE...AS THE S/WV MOVES AWAY
FM THE AREA...WLD EXPECT POPS TO DIMINISH. BECAUSE RAIN IS ALREADY
IN THE FCST FRI AND THE THREAT REMAINS...WL OPT NOT TO DROP ATTM.
NRN STREAM WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS SRN CANADA WELL NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES LATE SAT. EXTENDED MODELS CONT TO SUGGEST THE ASSOC SFC
FNT TO DROP THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUN. THAT...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE CUTOFF LOW STILL TO OUR SOUTH...STILL WARRANT A
POP SUNDAY.

MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH TEMPS. EXPECT TO SEE ONLY LITTLE
DROPOFF IN DWPTS TONIGHT. SO...WL LEAN TOWARD WARMER FWC LOWS
TONIGHT. MAV/FWC LOOKING TOO COOL TMRW. HAVE LEANED TOWARD WARMER
ETA 2M TEMPS. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE S/WV ENERGY THU...EXPECT TEMPS
TO COOL...BACK INTO THE 80S AND EVEN 70S.  MAV LOOKS WAY TOO COOL
FOR HIGHS THU. EXPECT SOME SUN WITH THE UPR LOW. 850 TEMPS WARRANT
HIGHS CLOSE TO 80.

...PRELIMINARY CCF FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES...

SPI EE 070/084 065/079 063 81244
PIA EE 069/083 064/077 060 81244
DEC EE 070/083 065/079 062 81333
CMI BE 069/081 064/079 061 81422
MTO BE 071/083 064/080 062 81444
LWV EE 073/083 064/082 064 81444

.ILX...NONE.

PLAHMER