Wildfire in Hawaii, September 9, 2002

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION AND GUIDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
10 AM HST MON SEP 9 2002

SUMMARY...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
TRADE WINDS OVER THE STATE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE ON
WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER.  THE TRADES WILL THEREFORE ALSO WEAKEN.
SHOWERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY FEW.

DISCUSSION...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
ALONG 32N TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. MEANWHILE THE ALEUTIAN LOW IS
GETTING READY FOR THE CHANGE OF THE SEASONS AND BEGINING TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF FAR TO THE NORTH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE
COASTAL WATERS OF ALASKA INCLUDING THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN.  PROGS SHOW A
LOW CUTTING OFF FROM THIS REGION OF FAST UPPER WESTERLIES NEAR
ALASKA AND DROPPING SOUTHWARD TOWARD HAWAII...THEN PAUSING TO THE
NORTH OF HAWAII FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AROUND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE
LATEST PROG PACKAGE INDICATES THAT THE LOW COMING SOUTHWARD TOWARD
US WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS RUNS AND
THAT IT WILL BE NORTH OF US DURING A SHORTER TIME INTERVAL. OUR
TRADE WINDS MAY THUS NOT COMPLETELY DIE OFF...AND IF THEY DO...THEN
ONLY FOR A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME PERHAPS ONLY 24 TO 48 HOURS.

THE TROPICS ARE RELATIVELY QUIET IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. SOME
DISTURBED WEATHER OUTSIDE THE ITCZ IS PRESENT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
HAWAII NEAR 10N 177W AND A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED
RIGHT ON THE EQUATOR JUST WEST OF THE DATELINE OVER THE WARMEST
WATER OF THE PACIFIC.  SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THERE BETWEEN 160W
AND 160E AND AS FAR NORTH AS 10N TO 15N ARE CLOSE TO 30C GIVE AND
TAKE 1/2 DEGREE CELSIUS. HERE LOCALLY IN HAWAII OUR SSTS ARE NOW
THE WARMEST OF THE YEAR AT 27C WITH POCKETS NEAR KAUAI OF 28C WATER
...WHICH IS 82F. THIS RELATIONSHIP 28C EQUAL 82F IS EASY TO
REMEMBER...JUST SWITCH THE DIGITS. THEN REMEMBER THE SIZE OF EACH
CELSIUS DEGREE IS ROUGHLY 2 FAHRENHEIT DEGREES SO VOILA 30C IS EQUAL
TO 86F. WHAT DETERMINES OUR SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES MORE THAN
ANYTHING ELSE IS OF COURSE SOLAR RADIATION.  AS WE APPROACH THE
EQUINOX...OUR INCOMING SUNSHINE IS NOW DIMINISHING FAIRLY RAPIDLY
THOUGH FORTUNATELY NOT WITH THE SPEED IT DOES AT HIGH LATITUDE
LOCATIONS SUCH AS ALASKA. THE SUN IN THE MORNING IN HAWAII RISES 27
MINUTES LATER TODAY THAN IT DID AT THE TIME OF THE SUMMER SOLSTICE
AND LIKELWISE SETS 36 MINUTES EARLIER IN THE EVENING FOR A LOSS OF
DAYLIGHT OF A LITTLE BETTER THAN AN HOUR. ROSENDAL

.HFO...WARNINGS...WATCHES...ADVISORIES...NONE.