Heavy Rain in Hawaii, March 29, 2002

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION AND GUIDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
4 PM HST FRI MAR 29 2002

SUMMARY...A FRONTAL BAND NEAR OAHU WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ISLANDS FROM
OAHU TO MAUI THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS THREAT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND EASTER SUNDAY...AND
MAY WELL EXPAND WESTWARD TO RETURN TO THE OTHER ISLAND MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

DISCUSSION...THE CUT OFF LOW CONTROLLING ISLAND WEATHER IS NOW
NEARLY 1000 MILES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WITH A CONVERGENCE OR FRONTAL
BAND CURVING DOWN FROM EAST OF THE LOW TO JUST WEST OF OAHU. BANDS
OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MARK THE CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WHICH IS NOW IN THE KAUAI CHANNEL AND
MOVING VERY SLOWLY EAST. THE CONVECTION IS WEAKENING AS THE CUT OFF
LOW MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN FOR OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SPREADING TO
THE BIG ISLAND BY SUNDAY AS THE CONVERGENCE BAND STALLS NEAR MAUI
AND THE BIG ISLAND. FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE BAND FLARING UP AGAIN
ON MONDAY AS THE JET STREAM MAKES ANOTHER PASS...MOVING SOUTHWARD
OVER THE ISLANDS.

SURF...THE LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL PRODUCE A SWELL THAT WILL AFFECT
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST FACING SHORES OF ALL ISLANDS BEGINNING ON
SATURDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT.
FARRELL

.HFO...WARNINGS.....NONE
.      WATCHES......NONE
.      ADVISORIES...HIGH SURF ADVISORY EFFECTIVE AT 5 PM HST FOR .
.                   NORTH AND NORTHWEST FACING SHORES
.                   SMALL CRAFT FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS