Hail and Damaging Winds in Tennessee, March 29, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
315 AM CST FRI MAR 29 2002

TWO H5 LOWS OF INTEREST...ONE OVER THE ONTARIO-MANITOBA BORDER WITH
A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTH SOUTHWEST INTO THE UPPER PLAINS AND
MIDDLE ROCKIES. THE SECOND LOW...A CUTOFF LOW OVER UPPER BAJA.
NEITHER CIRCULATION SEEMS IN A HURRY TO MOVE EASTWARD. THE SURFACE PATTERN
REFLECTS THE UPPER PATTERN WITH WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LOWS IN NE
MANITOBA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.

MODELS PUSH THE KANSAS LOW QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE ASSOCIATED
WEAK COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE MIDSTATE TONIGHT. SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE TONIGHT...BUT WILL WAIT FOR DAYSHIFT TO MAKE
THAT CALL. RAIN CHANCES END TEMPORARILY WHILE WAITING ON THE BAJA
LOW TO MOVE INTO TEXAS. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW IN
TEXAS RETURNS PRECIP CHANCES TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
PRECIP PROBABILITIES INCREASE FOR EASTER SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES BY
THE MIDSTATE TO THE SOUTH. DRIER AIR MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS
BACK TO THE SOUTH BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A SECOND FRONT DUE INTO THE
AREA EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR FOLLOWS BEHIND THIS FRONT
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

BNA EB 074/051 065/041 054 18562
CSV BB 071/049 062/041 052 18382

.BNA...NONE.

JLM

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075>080-093>097-301130-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 AM CST FRI MAR 29 2002

PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
TONIGHT. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROFILES...INDICATE
SOME STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THE MAIN THREAT IS FROM STRONG WINDS
AND HAIL.

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTER GROUPS MAY BECOME
NECESSARY TONIGHT.

JLM

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075>080-093>097-301130-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED FOR TIME OF ISSUANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
841 AM CST FRI MAR 29 2002

...SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE
MID STATE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF WARM MOIST AIR AT THE SURFACE, AND UNUSUALLY COLD AIR
IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, WILL PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS.

THE BEST TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 300 PM AND 800 PM.
THE PRIMARY THREATS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE RESIDENTS WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. WITH THE INCREASED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER,
EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTER GROUPS ARE URGED TO MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, AS ACTIVATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

ROSE