High Surf in Hawaii, January 5 to 10, 2002

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION AND GUIDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
10 AM HST SAT JAN 5 2002

.SUMMARY...A COLD FRONTAL BAND 260 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI IS
MOVING TOWARD THE ISLANDS AT ABOUT 15 MPH AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH
KAUAI SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF IT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BLOWING
ACROSS THE STATE WITH THESE WINDS LOCALLY GUSTY OVER WINDWARD
SLOPES. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING MUCH IN THE WAY OF WINDS
AND SHOWERS TO THE ISLANDS. ANOTHER FRONT FORECAST FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY PROMISES TO BE MUCH MORE VIGOROUS.

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE STATE FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT IS NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONES IN
THAT IT LACKS UPPER AIR SUPPORT AS IT GETS INTO OUR REGION.  THUS
THE ISLANDS WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT WITH NOT
MUCH OF A FOLLOWING HIGH PRESSURE CELL. THE EXPECTED SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONT TOMORROW WILL THEREFORE NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AND A WEAK
HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE ISLANDS BEHIND THE FRONT TO GIVE US
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH CLEAR SKIES FOR A DAY OR TWO ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY WE
WILL AGAIN SEE INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF IT. THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE GOOD UPPER AIR SUPPORT IN OUR REGION SO THE WINDS AND
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE BETTER DEVELOPED THAN
WITH THE PRESENT FRONT. THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL HIGH PRESSURE CELL MOVING EASTWARD ALONG 33N. WE
WILL THEREFORE SEE A COUPLE OF DAYS OF MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHEN THE HIGH WILL BE PASSING
NORTH OF HERE.

.SURF...WE HAVE BEEN HAVING A LARGE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
MULTIPLE CENTERS ROTATING AROUND ITS DEEP CORE SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. A LONG EAST/WEST FETCH OF STRONG WINDS
AND THE OCCASIONAL LOW ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE ISLANDS
NORTHWEST OF HERE HAVE GENERATED SOME HUGE SWELL THAT WILL LIKELY
ARRIVE IN THE ISLANDS LATER TORORROW. SURF HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR 30 FEET SO AHIGH SURF WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED AFTER WE
GET A BETTER FEEL FOR TIMING AND SIZE.  ROSENDAL

.PHFO.....WARNINGS.....NONE
.         WATCHES......NONE
.         ADVISORIES...SMALL CRAFT ALL WATERS