High Surf in Hawaii, December 6 to 7, 2002

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION AND GUIDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
10 AM HST FRI DEC 6 2002

SUMMARY...THE FRONT HAS REACHED KAUAI THIS EARLY MORNING AND WILL
ARRIVE AT OAHU THIS AFTERNOON AND MAUI TONIGHT.  EXPECTED ARRIVAL
TIME ON THE BIG ISLAND WILL BE ON SATURDAY.

DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT REACHED KAUAI AND NIIHAU AT SUNRISE
THIS MORNING BRINGING MISTY RAINS AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE
GARDEN ISLE. THE RAINS WERE LOCALLY HEAVY OVER NORTH FACING SLOPES
AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF THE INTERIOR OF THE ISLAND. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE FRONTAL BAND IS NOW IN THE KAUAI CHANNEL AND WILL
ARRIVE AT OAHU THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH
APPRECIATED RAIN TO ESPECIALLY WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS THAT
HAVE BEEN DRY FOR QUITE A WHILE...AND THE STRONG NORTHERLY AND
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BLOW SOME SHOWERS
LEEWARD ALSO AT TIMES. HOWEVER THESE STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS BECOMING TRADES RATHER QUICKLY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND MAKING FOR NOT TOO PLEASANT BEACH WEATHER.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH MAUI TONIGHT AND BIG ISLAND TOMORROW.
TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP IN THE UPPER AIR FLOW OVER THE STATE WHICH
WILL INDUCE INSTABILITY AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND THE CHANCE
OF SNOW FOR THE BIG ISLAND VOLCANOES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
FRONT MAY STALL OR SLOW DOWN NEAR THE BIG ISLAND MAKING FOR POSSIBLY
WET WEATHER THERE THROUGH MONDAY. FAR ON THE WESTERN HORIZON A
TYPHOON NAMED PONGSONA WILL BE THREATENING THE MARIANA ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS IT RECURVES SHARPLY OVER THEM AND
THEN HEADS NORTHEAST AND EASTWARD LIKE HUKO DID A MONTH OR SO AGO.
PONGSONAS REMNANT CIRCULATION MAY ACTUALLY COME A LITTLE CLOSER TO
HAWAII THAN HUKO DID.  ACCORDING TO THE AVN MODEL...OR THE GFS MODEL
AS IT IS BEING CALLED NOWADAYS...IT WILL BE PASSING CLOSE TO MIDWAY
ISLAND NEXT THURSDAY AND NEAR 35N 160W ON FRIDAY A WEEK FROM NOW AS
IT SWEEPS EASTWARD PAST THE LONGITUDES OF HAWAII ALONG ITS WAY TO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS PASSAGE OF EX-PONGSONA NORTH OF US
IS ONE OF THE REASONS THAT THE TRADES WILL BE DIMINISHING AGAIN
AFTER MIDWEEEK AND TEND TOWARD SOUTHWESTERLIES NEAR KAUAI. A
TRAILING FRONT BEHIND PONGSONA MAY BRING A WEAK SHOWER LINE INTO OUR
AREA THE FOLLOWING DAY. ROSENDAL

.HFO......WARNINGS.....NONE
.         WATCHES......NONE
.         ADVISORIES...HIGH SURF NORTHWEST FACING SHORES