Hail and Damaging Winds in Georgia, July 1, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
230 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2002

OVERVIEW: SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERAL
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS CWA.  PATTERN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK WITH RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING EAST TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
PLENTIFUL SURFACE MOISTURE AND WEAK IMPULSES IN UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
DRIVE INSTABILITY THROUGH THE WEEK BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOST AFTERNOONS/EARLY EVENINGS CWA WIDE.

SHORT TERM: LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING BEST LI VALUES AND LIGHT
TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM NORTHEAST MTNS TO ATL TO
AREAS WEST OF MCN.  THIS IN LINE WITH VIS SAT CU FIELD.  EXPECT
SCATTERED COVERAGE TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG THIS
AXIS IN LINE WITH MODEL PRECIP EFF FIELDS.  EXPECT SCT RW/TRW
DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH AROUND NOSE
OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS OHIO VALLEY FOR TUES AND WED.
BEST CHANCE WILL OCCUR WITH PEAK DIURNAL THERMAL INSTABILITY IN
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS.  RIDGE BUILDS MORE WEST TO EAST INTO
MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SECOND HALF OF WEEK WHICH MAY DECREASE
POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN CWA BUT WILL STAY WITH CHANCE
CWA-WIDE AS EASTERLY SHORTWAVES PERSIST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHERLY.  PERSISTENCE METHODOLOGY WORKS WELL FOR TEMPS WITH
LITTLE THERMAL ADVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...THIS IN LINE
WITH FWC/FMR GUIDANCE.

EXTENDED: QUESTIONS BEGIN TO ARISE TOWARD WEEKEND ON IMPACT OF RIDGE
BUILDING EAST.  LATEST AVN/MRF HAVE SURFACE LOW ADVECTING STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO REGION UNDER FAST EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
CAN/FSU SE/ECMWF STRONGER WITH RIDGING WHICH WOULD HELP SUPPRESS
POPS.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND SEE HOW
THINGS GO ON TUESDAY.  WILL STAY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD IN LINE WITH PERSISTENCE AND GUIDANCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: CONFIDENT ON SHORT TERM.  UNCERTAINTY INTO
WEEKEND.

FCSTID = 39

ATL  71 90 71 89 /  20 30 20 30
AHN  70 91 71 90 /  20 30 20 30
GVL  70 89 70 89 /  20 30 20 30
RMG  70 92 71 90 /  20 30 20 30
CSG  72 92 72 90 /  20 30 20 30
MCN  70 92 71 90 /  20 30 20 30

.ATL...
GA...NONE.

OUR DETAILED COUNTY FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT FOUS52 KFFC.
OUR AREA FORECAST FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA CITIES IS AVAILABLE
AT FLUS42 KFFC.

JCD

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-012100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1108 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2002

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHTNING AND
STRONG WINDS. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DISCUSSION...
THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CAPES OF 1500 TO 2000...AND LIFTED INDICES OF MINUS 3 TO MINUS 4.
A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON MAY HELP
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MOST THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE

.FOR SPOTTERS...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT SPOTTERS
SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THEY ARE NEEDED.

&&
FOR THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OTHER WEATHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/FFC.