Lightning Strike in Florida, September 20, 2002

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
232 PM EDT FRI SEP 20 2002

THE BIG STORIES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE HEAT
ON LAND...AND SURF/SWELLS OVER THE WATERS.  EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
BEFORE ISOLD/SCT AFTN/EVE TSTMS.  ONE MITIGATING FACTOR TO THE HEAT
WILL BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT BREEZE TO TAKE THE EDGE OFF.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE BIG PICTURE...WHICH SHOWS
MUCH OF THE PENINSULA IN A COLL REGION BETWEEN ISIDORE TO THE SW
AND A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER/E OF THE BAHAMAS.  AVN STILL LOOKS A
BIT TOO STRONG WITH THE BAHAMAS SYSTEM...BUT WV LOOPS SHOW VIGOROUS
DRY PUNCH DIVING S ON THE SYSTEMS BACKSIDE...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE AT
LEAST A WEAK CUTOFF CIRCULATION.  WILL BLEND THE AVN/ETA SOLUTION
THIS PACKAGE.

SHORT TERM:
CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER THE E PENINSULA...AND STILL LOOKS
TO BE AN ACTIVE LATE AFTN/EVE ACROSS THE SUNCOAST.  WILL PROBABLY
ADD AN EVENING PERIOD TO HANDLE COVERAGE...CLEARING OUT OVERNIGHT.
FOR SAT AND SUN...WITH DRY AIR DOMINATING THE MID LEVELS AND EVEN
HINTS AT A MID LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT LESS COVERAGE AND HENCE
LOWER PCPN CHANCES.  WCSB SHOULD ONLY DEVELOP N OF TAMPA BAY SAT
IF AT ALL...RESULTING IN STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AT A DECENT
CLIP.  WITH AFTN MAX TEMPS/DWPTS IN THE 92/75 RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...HEAT INDICES WILL PUNCH BETWEEN 100 AND 105.

EXTENDED:
EXTRAPOLATING TRACK OF ISIDORE GENERALLY WELL W OF THE REGION...
COMBINED WITH WEAKENING/NE MOVING SYSTEM OFF THE BAHAMAS SHOULD
PINCH OFF THE SUBSIDENCE AND ALLOW MORE DEEP MOISTURE TO RETURN.
NO SENSE IN GETTING FANCY...WILL CONTINUE TO TYPICAL SUMMER AFTN/EVE
ACTIVITY AND HOT/HUMID CONDS MON-FRI.

MARINE:
HERES WHERE IT GETS INTERESTING.  THE EASY PART IS HOISTING SCA FOR
SEAS THROUGHOUT THE WATERS.  SWELLS ARE QUICKLY PROPAGATING N AND
NW AHEAD OF ISIDORE...WITH 9 SEC PERIOD AND 8 FT COMBINED SEAS AT
BUOY 03 210 NM W OF LEE CO.  WITH ISIDORE EXPECTED TO FIRST
STRENGTHEN THEN SLOW DOWN N OF THE YUCATAN...SE SWELLS WILL
PROPAGATE THROUGHOUT THE E GULF.  HIGHEST VALUES WILL BE W OF THE
100 NM LINE...BUT EKMAN (RIGHTWARD) MOVEMENT WILL BRIDGE HIGH SEAS
INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS AS WELL.

SEA HEIGHT DECAY FCST TECHNIQUES GIVEN A 100 KT+ STORM NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR 2 DAYS INDICATES VALUES COULD RISE TO OR ABOVE 15 FT
BY SUNDAY IN SOME AREAS.  WITH FINAL INTENSITY/LOCATION SOMEWHAT IN
DOUBT WILL PLAY IT SAFE AND MAX AT 12 FT.

TIDES WILL BE ON THE RISE...BUT THANKFULLY THE DOMINATING SWELL
(SE) COMBINED WITH ESE WINDS OVER LAND WILL MITIGATE COASTAL FLOOD
THREAT.  FOR NOW...WILL EASE TIDES UP TO 2 FT ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY...ENOUGH FOR SOME RUN-UP AND OVERWASH IN PREFERRED AREAS BUT
THATS ABOUT IT.

WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO COVER THE MARINE AND HEAT THREAT FOR THE
WEEKEND.

THANX FOR COORD MIA/TLH.

FIRE WX:
NO PROBLEMS.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
BKV 073/092 074/092 2424
TPA 076/093 077/092 2424
GIF 074/092 075/092 2424
SRQ 075/092 076/092 3424
FMY 074/092 075/092 3534

.TBW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BONITA BCH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 60 NM.
    ...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TAMPA BAY.

88/GOLDSMITH

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-210200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
400 PM EDT FRI SEP 20 2002

...HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF ASTRONOMICAL
SUMMER...
...INCREASING SEAS AND SURF ALONG THE SUNCOAST...

HEAT:
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 90S
BY LUNCHTIME AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.  COMBINED WITH
HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 60 PERCENT...THE HEAT INDEX...OR THE
FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURE...WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 105.

THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD PREPARE ACCORDINGLY.  DRINK
PLENTY OF WATER...WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT OR LIGHT COLORED CLOTHING...AND
RESERVE STRENUOUS EXERCISE FOR EARLY MORNING OR EVENING.

SEAS AND SURF:
SOUTHEASTERLY SWELLS EMANATING FROM HURRICANE ISIDORE...WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD THE SEAS ALONG THE SUNCOAST.  OVERNIGHT...SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 4 FEET NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 8 FEET BEYOND 30 NM.

AS ISIDORE INTENSIFIES...SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.  CURRENT FORECAST DATA SUGGEST SEAS WILL RANGE FROM
6 TO 12 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
CLOSE TO THE EDGE OF THE COASTAL WATERS...OR AROUND 60 NM OFFSHORE.

THE HIGH SEAS WILL ALSO BRING ABOVE NORMAL TIDES AND LONG PERIOD
WAVES TO MUCH OF THE SUNCOAST THIS WEEKEND.

TIDES WILL BE 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY...BUT INCREASE TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY AT SOUTH FACING LOCATIONS...SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.  THIS WILL CREATE RUN UP OF WATER ALONG THE COAST...AS
WELL AS OVERWASH...AT TIME OF HIGH TIDE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

BREAKING WAVES WILL BUILD TO AT LEAST 2 TO 4 FEET ALONG THE BARRIER
ISLAND BEACHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THESE VALUES ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE PENDING ANY CHANGE IN TRACK OR
INTENSITY OF ISIDORE.

MARINERS...ESPECIALLY SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS...MAY WANT TO POSTPONE
TRIPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL CONDITIONS
IMPROVE.  BEACHGOERS SHOULD BE EXTRA CAREFUL NEAR THE WATER THIS
WEEKEND...AND HEED ALL WARNINGS FROM LIFEGUARDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

MARINE LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN  FL
506 PM EDT FRI SEP 20 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....MARINE SUBZONE....   GMZ  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ......MARINE ZONE......

0455 PM    LONGBOAT PASS-EGMONT      853  43 KT MARINE TSTM WIND
09/20/02   ENGLWD-TARP SPGS 20NM          STORM SPOTTER MEASURED
                                          WINDS OF 50 MPH ON
                                          BRADENTON BEACH. EVENT
                                          CONTINUED THROUGH AT LEAST
                                          5 PM.

BSG