Damaging Winds in Ohio, September 20, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
315 PM EDT THU SEP 19 2002

UPR LVL TROF TO PIVOT ACRS ARE TONIGHT WITH REGION IN RRQ OF 100
KNOT 300 MB JET. THIS RESULTING IN NICE AREA OF UPR LVL DIVERGENCE
CENTERED ACRS FA AT 06Z. THIS COUPLED WITH GOOD AREA OF LLVL
CONVERGENCE OUT AHEAD OF FRONT. RADAR PIX SHWG TSTMS DVLPG ACRS FA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION BACK ACRS
CNTRL INDIANA. PCPN SHOULD CONT TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACRS FA AS
WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT AND WL GO WITH 100 POPS ACROSS THE BOARD. BEST
CHANCE FOR SVR LOOKS TO BE ACRS WRN PORTIONS OF FA THRU THIS EVNG.
FCST SNDGS INCTG LLVL FLOW BCMG MORE UNIDIRECTINAL TWD 00Z BUT STILL
SOME LLVL SPEED SHEAR PRESENT INTO THIS EVNG SO THREAT FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE AS LINE ACRS CNTRL IND MOVES INTO WRN
PORTIONS OF FA.

GOOD NVA OVERSPREADS AREA THRU THE DAY ON SAT. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
IN ...WL DROP PCPN FM THE W ON SUN AND JUST HANG ON TO A LOW CHC
ERLY IN THE E. ANOTHER S/W ROTATING DOWN ACRS GRT LAKES ON SUN. MSTR
FAIRLY LIMITED BUT AVN TRENDING A LITTLE MORE WET AND WITH SOME LIFT
ACRS AREA...WL INDCT A LOW CHC POP ACRS THE N FOR SUN AFTN. CHC MAY
LINGER INTO ERLY SUN NGT ACRS THE NE BUT WL ONLY KEEP IT IN ONE PD
FOR NOW.

NW LLVL FLOW WL PERSIST ACRS AREA BEHIND FNT THRU THE WEEKEND WITH
WEAK CAA. LLVL THICKNESS SUPPORTING HIGHS NEAR OR JUST BELOW GUID
VALUES FOR HIGHS SO WILL TREND TEMP FCST THAT WAY.

.ILN...NONE.

LOTT

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-202300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
109 PM EDT FRI SEP 20 2002

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE REGION UNDER A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE MODERATE
INSTABILITY. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.  SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT
ALSO EXISTS FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF
INTERSTATE 75.

THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 5 PM AND 9 PM
IN EASTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO AND BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT IN
CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.