Funnel Cloud in Florida, September 20, 2002

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
232 PM EDT FRI SEP 20 2002

THE BIG STORIES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE HEAT
ON LAND...AND SURF/SWELLS OVER THE WATERS.  EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
BEFORE ISOLD/SCT AFTN/EVE TSTMS.  ONE MITIGATING FACTOR TO THE HEAT
WILL BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT BREEZE TO TAKE THE EDGE OFF.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE BIG PICTURE...WHICH SHOWS
MUCH OF THE PENINSULA IN A COLL REGION BETWEEN ISIDORE TO THE SW
AND A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER/E OF THE BAHAMAS.  AVN STILL LOOKS A
BIT TOO STRONG WITH THE BAHAMAS SYSTEM...BUT WV LOOPS SHOW VIGOROUS
DRY PUNCH DIVING S ON THE SYSTEMS BACKSIDE...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE AT
LEAST A WEAK CUTOFF CIRCULATION.  WILL BLEND THE AVN/ETA SOLUTION
THIS PACKAGE.

SHORT TERM:
CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER THE E PENINSULA...AND STILL LOOKS
TO BE AN ACTIVE LATE AFTN/EVE ACROSS THE SUNCOAST.  WILL PROBABLY
ADD AN EVENING PERIOD TO HANDLE COVERAGE...CLEARING OUT OVERNIGHT.
FOR SAT AND SUN...WITH DRY AIR DOMINATING THE MID LEVELS AND EVEN
HINTS AT A MID LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT LESS COVERAGE AND HENCE
LOWER PCPN CHANCES.  WCSB SHOULD ONLY DEVELOP N OF TAMPA BAY SAT
IF AT ALL...RESULTING IN STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AT A DECENT
CLIP.  WITH AFTN MAX TEMPS/DWPTS IN THE 92/75 RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...HEAT INDICES WILL PUNCH BETWEEN 100 AND 105.

EXTENDED:
EXTRAPOLATING TRACK OF ISIDORE GENERALLY WELL W OF THE REGION...
COMBINED WITH WEAKENING/NE MOVING SYSTEM OFF THE BAHAMAS SHOULD
PINCH OFF THE SUBSIDENCE AND ALLOW MORE DEEP MOISTURE TO RETURN.
NO SENSE IN GETTING FANCY...WILL CONTINUE TO TYPICAL SUMMER AFTN/EVE
ACTIVITY AND HOT/HUMID CONDS MON-FRI.

MARINE:
HERES WHERE IT GETS INTERESTING.  THE EASY PART IS HOISTING SCA FOR
SEAS THROUGHOUT THE WATERS.  SWELLS ARE QUICKLY PROPAGATING N AND
NW AHEAD OF ISIDORE...WITH 9 SEC PERIOD AND 8 FT COMBINED SEAS AT
BUOY 03 210 NM W OF LEE CO.  WITH ISIDORE EXPECTED TO FIRST
STRENGTHEN THEN SLOW DOWN N OF THE YUCATAN...SE SWELLS WILL
PROPAGATE THROUGHOUT THE E GULF.  HIGHEST VALUES WILL BE W OF THE
100 NM LINE...BUT EKMAN (RIGHTWARD) MOVEMENT WILL BRIDGE HIGH SEAS
INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS AS WELL.

SEA HEIGHT DECAY FCST TECHNIQUES GIVEN A 100 KT+ STORM NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR 2 DAYS INDICATES VALUES COULD RISE TO OR ABOVE 15 FT
BY SUNDAY IN SOME AREAS.  WITH FINAL INTENSITY/LOCATION SOMEWHAT IN
DOUBT WILL PLAY IT SAFE AND MAX AT 12 FT.

TIDES WILL BE ON THE RISE...BUT THANKFULLY THE DOMINATING SWELL
(SE) COMBINED WITH ESE WINDS OVER LAND WILL MITIGATE COASTAL FLOOD
THREAT.  FOR NOW...WILL EASE TIDES UP TO 2 FT ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY...ENOUGH FOR SOME RUN-UP AND OVERWASH IN PREFERRED AREAS BUT
THATS ABOUT IT.

WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO COVER THE MARINE AND HEAT THREAT FOR THE
WEEKEND.

THANX FOR COORD MIA/TLH.

FIRE WX:
NO PROBLEMS.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
BKV 073/092 074/092 2424
TPA 076/093 077/092 2424
GIF 074/092 075/092 2424
SRQ 075/092 076/092 3424
FMY 074/092 075/092 3534

.TBW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BONITA BCH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 60 NM.
    ...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TAMPA BAY.

88/GOLDSMITH

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-202100-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 20 2002

...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE...ESPECIALLY FROM
SARASOTA NORTH...
...HEAT INDEX VALUES 100 TO 103 BY MID AFTERNOON...

THUNDERSTORMS:
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND THE COLLISION OF
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH A LATE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE...WILL PRODUCE
NUMEROUS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SUNCOAST.

INITIAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA
BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM.  THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND A BRIEF DOWNPOUR...AS WELL AS WIND GUSTS TO 25
MPH.

BOUNDARIES FROM THESE STORMS WILL REACH THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS THE
SEA BREEZE NUDGES INLAND...SOMETIME BETWEEN 4 AND 6 PM...ALLOWING
FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  STRONGER STORMS WILL
CONTAIN FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR
HIGHER AND TORRENTIAL RAINS.

ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND THE PRIMARY THREATS.

MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO ENCOUNTER PONDING OF WATER OR MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS LATER TODAY.  REMEMBER...LIGHTNING
KILLS  WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG
APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS
BEFORE USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

HEAT:
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S BY 2 PM.  COMBINED WITH
HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 60 PERCENT...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL REACH 103 IN SOME AREAS BEFORE STORMS ARRIVE MAINLY
AFTER 4 PM.

DRINK PLENTY OF WATER...BEFORE YOU GET THIRSTY. WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT AND
LIGHT COLORED CLOTHING. RESERVE STRENUOUS EXERCISE FOR EARLY MORNING
OR EVENING HOURS. STAY NEAR AIR CONDITIONED LOCATIONS IF POSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW

BSG