Hail in Florida, October 18, 2002

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
211 PM EDT FRI OCT 18 2002

CURRENTLY...NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH IS
ALLOWING FOR A SLOW MODERATION OF THE COOL DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE FA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SFC OBS WHICH DEPICT SOME SCATTERED CU MOVING TOWARD MY INTERIOR
ZONES FROM THE FL EAST COAST...AND DEW POINTS 60 TO THE LOWER 60S.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON VERY PLEASANT MID OCTOBER WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE. TONIGHT TEMPS SHOULD NOT BE AS COOL AS
LAST NIGHTS AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY.

SHORT TERM...MODELS AGAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST 36 HOURS...THEN DIVERGE SOME THEREAFTER WITH THE AVN
DEPICTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTH INTO THE FA
WITH INCREASING POP CHANCES. AT THE PRESENT TIME THE MODELS KEEP A
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THROUGH 120 HOURS WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES
PASSING BY WELL NORTH OF THE STATE. GIVEN THIS CANT SEE HOW WINDS
WILL BACK ENOUGH AS ADVERTISED BY THE AVN TO DRAW THIS MOISTURE NORTH
DURING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NOW
SHOWS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE REGION THE AVN HAS THIS MOISTURE
COMING FROM...SO WILL OPT TO KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FCST THROUGH SUNDAY
BUT I WILL INTRODUCE A LOW POP MENTION ON MONDAY DUE TO ENOUGH
MOISTURE RETURN AND POTENTIAL SEA BREEZE FORCING. AS THE SFC HIGH TO
THE NORTH DRIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE NELY
FLOW WILL BECOME EAST...SO TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK TO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. GUIDANCE AGAIN LOOK TO AGGRESSIVE
IN MODERATING TEMPS...SO WILL UNDERCUT MAX TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

EXTENDED...WEAKENING FRONT PROGD BY MODELS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
FA ON TUESDAY...THEN LIKELY STALLING AND WASHING OUT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH BRIDGES
ACROSS IT. WILL ADVERTISE A LOW POP MENTION ON TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE FRONT OR WHATS LEFT OF IT...OTHERWISE WED-FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY DRY AND ON THE BREEZY SIDE AS A LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN U.S...SO WILL PULL POP MENTION DURING THESE PERIODS.

MARINE...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME EAST TONIGHT...THEN SOUTHEAST
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE COMPONENT DEVELOPING
NEAR SHORE EACH AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NW BY LATER TUESDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. BY WED THE SFC HIGH BRIDGING WHATS LEFT OF
THE FRONT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER INTO THE NE. AT THE MOMENT WIND
AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
HIGHLIGHTS ANTICIPATED.

FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

PRELIMINARY #S
BKV 053/082 058/084 0000
TPA 062/083 067/084 000-
GIF 060/084 065/085 0001
SRQ 063/083 066/084 0001
FMY 064/084 068/085 0001

.TBW...NONE.

MCMICHAEL

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-181800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
600 AM EDT FRI OCT 18 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.