Tornadoes in Florida, October 15, 2002

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
130 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2002

WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MUCH DRIER COOLER
WEATHER IS ON ITS WAY.  THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING
NORTHWEST AND GRADUAL CLEARING DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.  SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER COOLER AIR ADVECTING OVER THE FA...AND THIS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.  AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY...WINDS WILL VEER NORTHEAST AND EAST WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO CLIMATIC NORMALS.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES NORTH FLORIDA WITH MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE
FA.  THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL REMAIN LOW WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND BEGIN TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST APPROACHING NORTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL DRY AIR APPEARS TO
BE HEADING TOWARDS FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALSO.

MARINE...MARGINAL SCEC CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.  SCEC CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH WINDS SUBSIDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
BKV 68/80/56/78 4100
TPA 72/82/61/79 4100
GIF 71/83/60/80 4100
SRQ 72/82/61/80 4100
FMY 73/85/64/81 5100

.TBW...SCEC TONIGHT BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT TO 60NM
       INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.

OGLESBY

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-151500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
520 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GUSTY MARINE WINDS TONIGHT...

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE SUNCOAST...AS WELL AS
INTERIOR COUNTIES.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN
GULF EARLY THIS MORNING...REACHING THE COAST AROUND OR JUST BEFORE
NOON.  RESIDENTS NEAR THE COAST CAN EXPECT LOCALLY TORRENTIAL
RAIN...OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH
WITH A FEW CELLS.

STRONGER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER INLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LINE ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR.  A FEW SEVERE STORMS
MAY DEVELOP. STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTAIN WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR
MORE...SMALL HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.  ANY SEVERE STORMS
THAT FORM WOULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
COAST...WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RESIDENTS SHOULD BE ALERT TO CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY.
WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG
APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS
BEFORE USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

MARINERS...ESPECIALLY SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS...PLANNING TRIPS INTO
THE EASTERN GULF TODAY AND TONIGHT MAY WISH TO DELAY OR POSTPONE
THEM UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEBSITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW

BSG

FLZ039-042-048-151700-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1050 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2002

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO...

AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY TO 30 MILES
NORTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY.  THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT
15 MPH.  THE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 40
TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.  STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT EXTREME WESTERN
PORTIONS OF LEVY COUNTY BETWEEN 11 AM AND NOON...AND THE REMAINDER
OF LEVY COUNTY BETWEEN NOON TO 1 PM.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.  ADDITIONAL STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.

RESIDENTS IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO OR LOCAL TELEVISION STATIONS FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION THROUGH THE DAY.

OGLESBY

FLZ039-042-043-048-049-050-051-052-055-056-057-060-061-062-065-
151700-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...COR TO ADD COUNTIES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1050 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2002

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO...

AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY TO 30 MILES
NORTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY.  THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT
15 MPH.  THE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 40
TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.  STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT EXTREME WESTERN
PORTIONS OF LEVY COUNTY BETWEEN 11 AM AND NOON...AND THE REMAINDER
OF LEVY COUNTY BETWEEN NOON TO 1 PM.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.  ADDITIONAL STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.

RESIDENTS IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO OR LOCAL TELEVISION STATIONS FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION THROUGH THE DAY.

OGLESBY