Extreme Cold in Florida, November 29, 2002

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN
821 PM EST THU NOV 28 2002

A COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT ON A NW-NLY WIND FLOW. TEMPERATURES ALREADY DOWN TO
40 DEGREES AT KCTY AS I WRITE...AND AS THE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ERODE AWAY...TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING OVER LEVY
COUNTY BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BASED ON THIS WILL RE-ISSUE THE NPW
(FREEZE WARNING) FOR LEVY 10 PM. ELSEWHERE CURRENT AND EXPECTED DEW
POINT TRENDS MAY SUPPORT SOME LOWER 30 DEGREE READINGS OVER PORTIONS
OF CITRUS...SUMTER...AND HERNANDO COUNTIES (MAINLY INLAND AND IN THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS) TOWARD MORNING...BUT LIMITED DURATIONS
WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED TO EXPAND THE FREEZE WARNING ANY FURTHER SOUTH
AT THIS TIME. ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S. ONGOING ZONES HANDLE
ALL OF THIS WELL...SO NO EVENING UPDATES EXPECTED.

MARINE...C-MAN...PORTS AND OFFSHORE BUOYS ALREADY INDICATING WINDS
WITHIN THE SCEC CRITERIA EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG CAA WILL MAINTAIN
THESE TRENDS THE REST OF THE NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP SCEC FLAGS FLYING
WITH NO OTHER CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE 1030 PM UPDATE.

.TBW...FREEZE WARNING LEVY COUNTY.
    ...SCEC BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 60 NM...INCLUDING
       TAMPA BAY.
    ...RED FLAG WARNING ALL COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

JCM

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-290300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
345 PM EST THU NOV 28 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT:

...FREEZE WARNING FOR LEVY COUNTY TONIGHT...
...COLD AND A BIT BREEZY FRIDAY MORNING ELSEWHERE...

A COLD AIR MASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE PENINSULA LATER
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF LEVY COUNTY...NEAR FREEZING ACROSS MUCH
OF HERNANDO...SUMTER...AND CITRUS COUNTIES...AND NEAR 40 FROM THE
EASTERN SUBURBS OF TAMPA THROUGH CENTRAL POLK COUNTY.

NORTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH...EXCEPT 10 TO 15 MPH NEAR THE
WATER...WILL MAKE IT FEEL A BIT COLDER.  WIND CHILL VALUES EARLY
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST TO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.

RESIDENTS VENTURING OUT EARLY FRIDAY SHOULD DRESS WARMLY. SEVERAL
LAYERS OF CLOTHING WILL INSULATE YOU BETTER THAN A SINGLE COAT OR
JACKET.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...LATE FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP AGAIN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING FROM INTERIOR PASCO COUNTY NORTH...WITH MID 30S EXPECTED
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE COAST.

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A
NEW SURGE OF POLAR AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA. FREEZING IN THE NORTH
AND WIND CHILLS CENTRAL AND SOUTH MAY AGAIN BE A PROBLEM.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW

BSG