Damaging Wind in Florida, June 20, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
210 PM EDT THU JUN 20 2002

CURRENTLY...SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN FL ZONES AND HAVE BEGUN
OVER THE GA COASTAL COUNTIES. THE SFC TROUGH EXTENDS S-SW THROUGH THE
STATE FROM SOUTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO THE SW PENINSULA AND A SHORTWAVE
IS MOVING NORTH ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE PRECIP WILL
PERSIST AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. CURRENT TEMPS
ARE LINGERING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
THE AREA.

TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...MODELS AGREE WRT TO AN UPR LVL CUTOFF LOW
FORMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH OVER THE FL
PENINSULA MOVES WEST INTO THE EASTERN GOMEX. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE NE CONUS ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WITH AN AXIS BUILDING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. DESPITE MODEL CONFLICTS WRT SFC LOW FORMATION IN
THE TROUGH...THE TROUGH/DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK WEST ALONG THE GULF
COAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST A MOIST AND BREEZY FLOW WILL TRAIL IT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP WORDING FOR BREEZY FRI. WILL GO CHC TO LIKELY
ALL ZONES THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...THE TROUGH/DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS THE ATLANTIC SFC HIGH AXIS SHIFTS
SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANTICIPATE MORE BREAKS IN CLOUDS AND BETTER
HEATING AT THE SFC. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS (60%) SAT AND DROP
TO CHC (30-40%) FOR ALL ZONES SAT NIGHT. FLOW BECOMES MORE SE-S.

SUN...ANTICIPATE A S FLOW AND CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR
SUN...BUT IF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PEEK THROUGH...A SEA BREEZE COULD
DEVELOP WITH CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. A TROPICAL FEED OF
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION. WILL GO WITH CHC POPS ALL
ZONES FROM 40% GA TO 30% SOUTHERN FL ZONES. FOR TEMPS IN THE SHORT
TERM...WILL NOT GO AS LOW ON HIGHS AS MAV/FWC SO WILL TREND TOWARD ETA.
LOW TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE.

EXTENDED...AS UPR LVL LOW RETROGRADES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. THE CURRENT
STATIONARY TROUGH DIFFUSE AS THE BERMUDA HIGH AXIS BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST MON. THE AXIS DROPS SOUTHWARD OVER THE PENINSULA LATE
IN THE PERIOD BRINGING US CLOSER TO A SUMMERTIME WX PATTERN WITH POPS
AND TEMPS NEAR CLIMO. WILL CONTINUE WORDING FOR PARTLY CLOUDY AND CHC
POPS.

MARINE...WILL INCREASE WINDS TO 15 KTS TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY MOVES
INLAND. WILL BUMP SEAS UP TO 4 TO 6 FT FOR FRI NIGHT GIVEN A SE FETCH
TRAILING THE TROUGH.

PRELIM...
AMG WW 068/083 068/084 067 24466
SSI WW 073/080 073/083 073 24677
JAX WT 070/083 070/084 071 24786
SGJ WT 073/082 073/084 074 24786
GNV WT 069/085 070/087 070 24775
OCF WT 070/085 071/087 070 24775=

.JAX...
.GA...NONE.
.FL...NONE.

BROYLES/SANDRIK