Tornado in Florida, June 11, 2002

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
150 PM EDT TUE JUN 11 2002

...CORRECTED POPS IN PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...

AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN TO BETWEEN
KEY WEST AND NAPLES TO BETWEEN GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE PALM
BEACHES.  ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE WAVE WILL DRIFT NORTH AND
WEST SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE UPPER LOW OFF THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST WILL DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST
GULF...THEN MODELS HAVE THE LOW OPEN UP TO A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE
TROUGH.  THAT SEEMS TO BE A MODEL BIAS AND I WILL PLAY IT AS KEEPING
AN UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHEAST GULF ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT SHEARED.  EITHER
WAY IT SPELLS RAIN FOR US.  IN FACT I WILL UP THE POPS EVEN HIGHER
FOR WEDNESDAY THAN THE CURRENT ZONES HAVE.  I WILL MAKE IT A 70 POP
PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE.

CONVECTION IS FLARING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...IT SEEMS TO
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE WAVE.  THE
BEST I CAN TELL THERE IS NO CIRCULATION IN THE AREA.  WHICH MAKES
THE ETAS VERSION OF EVENTS A LITTLE SUSPECT.  THE ETA SPINS UP A
LOW AND BRINGS IT THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY TONIGHT.  I AM NOT
BUYING IT.  NEITHER DO I BELIEVE THE AVN KEEPING THE SYSTEM TO THE
EAST.  I AM GOING WITH MORE OF A BLEND OF THE ETA AND NGM.  WHICH
MEANS I AM THROWING THE MAV MOS OUT THE WINDOW...WHICH IS
UNFORTUNATE BECAUSE IT IS THE ONLY EXTENDED MOS I HAVE.

AND SPEAKING OF THE EXTENDED...I DO NOT BUY THE AVN PUSHING A FRONT
THROUGH THE STATE ON SATURDAY.  NEITHER THE EXTENDED ETA NOR THE
NOGAPS NOR THE ECMWF HAVE THIS.  THE SOURCE AIR MASS DOES NOT LOOK
THAT COLD AND THE WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH ARE NOT THAT STRONG.  THE
ONLY ARGUMENT THAT I CAN SEE FOR DEEPENING THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND
THEREFORE PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH IS THE BUILDING RIDGE OUT
WEST. IF IT WERE MARCH MAYBE I WOULD BUY THAT BUT ITS NOT SO I WILL
KEEP THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH MEANS INCREASING POPS A BIT
IN THE EXTENDED.  A QUICK LOOK AT THE 06Z AVN ACTUALLY BACKS OFF A
LITTLE ALREADY.

FOR THE MARINE FORECAST I WILL GO PRETTY MUCH WITH PERSISTENCE...
EXCEPT THAT THE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY AND
MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS

BKV 071/090 073/89 3745
TPA 075/090 076/89 3755
GIF 073/088 074/89 2746
SRQ 073/090 074/87 4755
FMY 073/091 074/89 4755

.TBW...NONE.

SOBIEN