Funnel Cloud in Florida, July 11, 2002

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
247 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2002

DEEPENING SW FLOW ARRIVING ON QUEUE THIS AFTN...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS REGION REMAINS PARKED BETWEEN
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL GULF AND RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING W
FROM THE BAHAMAS/W ATLC.  EXPECT MORE WET WX FRI AND SAT...PERHAPS
BECOMING A BIT MORE ORGANIZED BY SAT AS SYSTEM OPENS UP AND JET
ENERGY INCREASES.  THEREAFTER...SYSTEM SHOULD LIFT NE ALLOWING
UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS STATE...BRINGING SUMMER SWELTER TO BEGIN
NEXT WEEK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TRENDS...AND CONTINUE
TO FAVOR THE ETA AS IT HAS HANDLED THE STRENGTH/POSITION OF SYSTEM
FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS.  AVN IS FAIRLY SIMILAR...WHILE NGM APPEARS
TO BE TOO DRY ON SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM:
PCPN SHOULD END SOON AFTER DARK OVER THE INTERIOR...AND PROBABLY FOR
A TIME ACROSS THE COAST.  HOWEVER...SW FLOW WILL GENERATE ANOTHER
LINE OF BKN CONVECTION IN THE GULF TOWARD MORNING...AND THIS TIME
IT SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE MORE DEFINITIVELY.  FRIDAYS TEMPS A TOUGH
CALL...AND WILL LEAN TWD THE LOWER VALUES AS MORNING CONVECTION
SHOULD LAY OUT A GOOD DEAL OF DEBRIS.  STILL...WITH BEST DYNAMICS
WAITING UNTIL SAT...WE MAY SEE BREAKS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN
FOLLOWED BY MORE CELLULAR ACTIVITY AS TRIGGER TEMPS REMAIN LOW
(L80S).

WAS TEMPTED TO ROLL LIKELY PCPN CHC FRI NIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL/N
COAST WHERE BEST ENERGY WILL COINCIDE WITH CHANNELED SW FLOW...BUT
WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL RETAIN A 50/50 CHC.  PCPN SHOULD END
OVER INTERIOR DURING EVENING...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW POP-UP SHOWERS BEFORE DAWN SAT...EVEN HERE.  SAT WILL PROBABLY
BE SIMILAR TO FRI...PERHAPS WITH SOME DRYING LATE IN THE DAY.

EXTENDED:
WEAKENING SW FLOW CONTINUES SAT NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH
TO PROMOTE ISOLD-SCT COASTAL PCPN...AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A
TRANSITION DAY AS RIDGING FROM SFC-ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE OVER.  WILL
DROP BACK PCPN CHANCES TO CLIMO OR JUST BELOW.  FOR MON-THU...HOT
AND STEAMY WITH ISOLD-SCT MAINLY AFTN/EVE ACTIVITY AS RIDGE LOCKS IN
ACROSS REGION.

MARINE:
SCEC CONDS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE N LEG FRI THROUGH SAT...A BIT
LIGHTER FARTHER S.  FOR NOW...WILL AVERAGE THE CENTRAL AND N LEGS
JUST BELOW HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS JUST A BIT...
AND HOPEFULLY NEXT SHIFT CAN BE MORE DEFINITIVE.  CONDS QUIET DOWN
QUICKLY SAT NIGHT/SUN AS GRADIENT SLACKENS...WITH LIGHT GENERALLY W
WINDS MON AND TUE.

FIRE WX:
STILL MOIST...NO PROBLEMS.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
BKV 073/086 075/086 4757
TPA 076/085 077/085 4757
GIF 073/088 075/087 4747
SRQ 075/085 077/085 5757
FMY 073/086 075/087 4747

TBW...NONE.

88/GOLDSMITH

MARINE LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN  FL
301 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....MARINE SUBZONE....   GMZ  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ......MARINE ZONE......

0215 PM    EGMONT-JOHNS PASS        853  WATERSPOUT
07/11/02   ENGLWD-TARP SPGS 20NM          MULTIPLE REPORTS JUST
                                          OFFSHORE PINELLAS COUNTY
                                          BETWEEN TIERRA VERDE AND
                                          ST. PETE BEACH. INITIAL
                                          REPORT FROM NEWS CHANNEL 10
                                          AND CONFIRMED BY PINELLAS
                                          COUNTY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT.

JTD