Lightning Strike in Alabama, July 11, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
315 AM CDT THU JUL 11 2002

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE TO
THE ENE THAN WHAT THE MODELS ADVERTISE FOR 06Z. FURTHER EAST RIDGE
AXIS HAS SHIFTED FURTHER S WITH WEAK HIGH PRES DOMINATING AT THE SFC
OVER MUCH OF THE FL PEN.  TO THE N WEAK LOW PRES HAS BEGUN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL MS RR VALLEY AS UPPER TROF OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. CONTINUES TO DIG BUT SLOWER THAN YESTERDAYS RUNS.
ALOFT HAVE NOTED A CLOSED LOW NOW AT THE BASE OF THIS TROF WELL N
OVER THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY WITH TEMPS ALOFT IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS LOW STILL NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. TO THE S MID LEVEL LOW CENTER
NOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF CONTINUES TO TRACK WSW WITH LITTLE TO NO
INFLUENCE ATTM ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.   LATEST THINKING
DEEPENING TROF WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES
THROUGH EARLY SAT THEN LIFT OUT QUICKLY AS BERMUDA HIGH WINS AND
BECOMES THE DOMINATE FEATURE FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER SE U.S. WITH THIS
BELIEVE LOWER POPS WILL BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHERN HALF AND NEAR THE COAST. A DEEP FLOW OUT OF THE WSW
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF REGION BY FRI AFT ALSO SUPPORTS THIS
REASONING.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS BASICALLY LEANING TOWARD THE AVN AND CAN
SOLUTIONS SHOW A MORE ZONAL FLOW SOUTH OF THE UPPER TROF TO THE N
FRI AND SAT SUGGESTING INCREASED SUBSISTENCE NEAR COAST WILL BE
LIKELY AS MEAN FLOW BECOMES MOSTLY WSW.  OVER THE GULF MID LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO TRACK SW AND FILL WITH WEAK SFC LOW/TROF QUICKLY FILLS
ALSO AS ITS SHEARED AND ABSORBED AS IT NEARS THE COAST.  FOR NOW
WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA FOR
FRI...CUTTING BACK ONCE AGAIN TODAY FOR MOST AREAS. BELIEVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL BE FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT MAINLY
TO THE NORTH AWAY FROM THE COAST. WITH THIS WILL BEGIN TO TRIM POPS
CAREFULLY AND INTRODUCE A SWLY WIND FLOW FOR MOST AREAS BEGINNING ON
FRI.

MARINE...CONTINUED FLOW FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST TODAY THEN QUICKLY
TURNING SW EARLY FRI AS WEAK SFC LOW LIFTS N AND BECOMES ABSORBED.
SWLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY UP AND POSSIBLY INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER
THE WEEKEND AS BERMUDA HIGH INTERACTS WITH TROFING TO THE N.  SEAS 3
TO 4 FEET AT LEAST OR SLIGHTLY BETTER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FIRE...NO REQUIREMENTS...ATTM.  DISPERSIONS THOUGH MAY HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE WEEKEND AS GRADIENT NEAR THE COAST
REMAINS IN PLACE.

/32

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...

MOB BE 092/073 091/074 089 32213
PNS BE 089/075 090/076 089 32213
DTS BE 089/077 088/078 087 32213
GZH BE 093/072 090/072 089 32324
2R0 BE 093/073 090/073 090 32324
61A BE 093/072 090/073 089 32324

.MOB...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.