Heat in Delaware, June 24 to 27, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
400 AM EDT MON JUN 24 2002

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHERN NJ
THIS MORNING...THEN HEAD SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NJ AND NORTHERNMOST PHL
SUBURBS THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL NOT ARRIVE IN TIME TO PREVENT
HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM REACHING 100 IN THE HIGHLY URBANIZED SECTIONS
OF THE METRO DELAWARE VALLEY...SO THE EXCESSIVE HEAT ADVISORY
CONTINUES THERE. THE FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL SPARK SOME AFTERNOON TSTMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. ETA PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK 0-6KM MEAN FLOW...
PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...RELATIVELY DRY MID LEVEL AIR
AND INVERTED V SOUNDINGS...SO EXPECT HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WITH
SOME STORMS.

THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER LOWER DELAWARE TONIGHT...WITH TSTMS
CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES INTO THIS EVENING. EASTERLY FLOW
TONIGHT AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION WILL LEAD TO PATCHY
FOG MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN ZONES...HANGING IN A LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK
TUESDAY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THE FRONT THEN CREEPS SLOWLY BACK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH MOST
OF THE AREA IN MOIST ONSHORE SE FLOW. DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
AS A RESULT...BUT WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY IN MOST
PLACES...EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET. WITH THE FRONT
RETREATING NORTH AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING IN FROM THE OH
VALLEY AROUND THE TOP OF THE H5 RIDGE...KEPT PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

.PHI...
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON NJZ015-017>019.
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON PAZ067>071.
MARINE...NONE.

GOODMAN

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ013>027-PAZ060-067>071-241515-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
530 AM EDT MON JUN 24 2002

...HOT AND HUMID AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND INTERACT
WITH A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS PRODUCING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HIGHEST TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 90S AND THE AIRMASS WILL
BE VERY UNSTABLE.

CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME
MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WINDS
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN. THE RAIN MAY FALL AT A RATE OF
ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR TOTALING NEARLY 4 INCHES IN SOME AREAS
OF EASTERN MARYLAND...DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/PHI IN SMALL LETTERS. CLICK ON THE RADAR IMAGE
AND FOLLOW THE MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS.

EBERWINE