Lightning Strike in Delaware, August 6, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
230 AM EDT TUE AUG 6 2002

THE BIG CHILL IS UNDERWAY ACRS OUR CWA. A PLEASANT BREAK FROM THE
TORRID STRETCH OF THE PAST NINE DAYS WITH SEASONAL TO ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPS SET TO RETURN TWD AND THRU THE WEEKEND. WHL WE/RE SURE NO ONE
IS COMPLAINING ABT THE LACK OF SVR WX YDA...BASINWIDE PCPN AMTS WERE
FAIRLY LIGHT WITH ONLY SCTD LOCNS IN THE POCONOS...BERKS CTY...THE
LWR DELMARVA AND NR ACY HAVING STP OF OVER AN INCH. DOWNSIDE OF THIS
PLEASANT AIR MASS WILL BE THE LACK OF PCPN FOR THE CWA FOR MOST OF
THIS FCST PKG.

MDLS ARE FCSTG RAPID CLRG THIS MRNG AND THERE WILL BE SOME LAST
MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS WITH RESPECT TO BOTH THE MNTN OF CLDS AND ANY
PCPN CHCS. ETA/S FCST FIELDS LOOK BETTER GIVEN THE WAY SHRA HAVE
REDVLPD OVR PARTS OF NRN NJ. WOULD SUSPECT THIS SHRT WV AND CAA WILL
HELP SOME CAA SC FORM TDY. MSTR LVL AT H85 IS NOT GENEROUS...SO
SKIES SHLD RMN ON THE SUNNY SIDE OF THE LEDGER FOR MOST OF OUR CWA.
MOST SC NRN ZNS. H2.5 JET WILL RMN OVR OUR CWA THRU WED. MDLS ARE
PRETTY DRY AT THAT LVL AND DON/T SEE MUCH CI UPSTREAM. GUID HAS
STABILIZED WITH MOST HI TEMPS IN THE 70S. PHL...WWD MAY VERY WELL
HAVE SET THEIR CALENDAR DAY HI AT 101 THIS MRNG. WINDS AOB H8 PRETTY
BRISK AND WILL CONT BREEZY WORDG. LOCNS WILL PBLY HAVE PEAK GUSTS IN
THE 30S.

ENUF OF A GRAD TNGT TO NOT TOTALLY DECOUPLE. WE STILL THO PRFR THE
ETA MOS AS A COMP BTWN THE OTHERS. AVN MOS SEEMS TO BE GIVING THE
GRAD TOO MUCH CREDIT. LIMITED CLIMAT RECORD AT TTN (58 IN 1957)
MAKES IT THE ONLY STATION THAT SHLD MAKE A RECORD LO TNGT.

ANOTHER GRAND DAY ON WED. CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE REACHED AND H2.5
JET OVERHEAD. NEVERTHELESS NEITHER LOCN HAS MUCH MSTR SO PBLY JUST A
FEW FAIR WX CU AND NOT MUCH CI. WOULD EXPECT A BIT OF A BUMP UP FROM
TDY/S AFTN MAXES AS H10-H8.5 THICK RISE BY ABT 10M. THUS ETA MOS
LOOKS THE MOST ACCURATE.

WEAKER GRAD AND MORE DECOUPLING WED NGT. AVN MOS LOOKS TO BE
REBOUNDING THE DEWPTS TOO QUICKLY (AGN) AND WILL BE LEANING TWD THE
ETA/NGM MOS. TTN WILL PBLY HAVE ANOTHER RECORD LOW (57 IN 1948) THE
OTHERS APR SAFE (ACY/S 50 IN 1994 WILL COME CLOSE).

BEYOND THAT AVN SEEMS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH
THE NEXT TROF...ALTHO THE GENERAL TREND IS CORRECT. MED RNG MDLS
FCST A RETURN TO ZONAL FLOW WITH THE CWA NEAR THE SRN END OF THE
WRLYS. OTHER THAN THE ECMWF ALL THE OTHER FCST MDLS ARE EXPECTING
THE DIGGING WRN ATLC TROF TO LIFT TD#3 NEWD AWAY FROM THE U.S.
MAINLAND.

MARINE: SCA WILL RMN UP.

YDA/S MEA CULPA: FCST OBVIOUSLY DID NOT GO ACCORDING TO PLAN. ONE
MIGHT SAY IT FOLLLOWED THE CLIMATOLOGICAL SCRIPT THO PRETTY WELL.
THERE IS ALWAYS A PRECIPITUOUS DROP IN SVR WX EVENTS ARND HERE IN
AUG. EVEN IN AN ACTIVE SVR WX YR LIKE THIS IT SOMETIMES DOES DEFAULT
BACK TO THIS. DEBRIS FROM ONGOING CONVECTION DID A ONE-TWO PUNCH ON
US. IT LIMITED MAX TEMPS A BIT/LWRD THE CAPES AND DID NOT GIVE
UPSTREAM LOCNS A CLR SLOT TO DVLP. NVA MAX MOVG ACRS PA WKND THE
FORMATION OF THE LEE SIDE TROF AS SFC WINDS WENT WSW TO W. ALSO
WEAKENED INFLOW INTO THE STORMS. WIND FIELDS BLO H7 WERE OBVIOUSLY
LACKING AND TSRA COULD NOT MAKE UP THE DIF WITH LESS CAPE OR INFLOW.
BIT DISCONCERTING GIVEN THE FCSTD K INDICES AND PWATS WERE SO HI BY
BOTH MDLS. WE COULD OF USED MORE PCPN...MOST AREAS DID NOT GET IT.

ENJOY THE NEXT FEW DAYS

.PHI...
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SCA FOR CSTL WATERS AND DE BAY.

TFG