Drought in Delaware, April 1, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
950 PM EST SUN MAR 31 2002

*********************************UPDATE*****************************
HAVE HOISTED SML CRFT ADVSRY ACRS ALL CSTL AREAS AND ALL OF DEL BAY.
FEW OTHR CHGS ATTM.    -JWH-

*********************************************************************

PCPN IN ADVANCE OF SECOND SHORT WAVE HAS SLOWLY BEEN WORKING
TOWARD/INTO FORECAST AREA. TODAY HAS BEEN A LTL SPOTTIER THAN
EXPECTED...BUT AS ETA AND AVN ARE QUITE SIMILAR WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL CONT THE FORECAST FOR RA TONIGHT. GOOD PWATER VALUES FOR SERN
PORTION OF AREA...WITH VALUES AROUND 1.25 IN. H8 DEWPOINTS IN THE
SERN FA EXCEED 5 DEG C AND APPROACH 10 DEG C FAR S. DECENT DYNAMICS
AS THE MID LVL TROF STARTS TO TILT NEGATIVE AND THE LOW LEVEL LOW IS
IN A FAVORED AREA REGARDING UPPER JETS. SOME BUOYANCY SNEAKS INTO
SRN FA OVERNIGHT. SO FAR...LIGHTNING HAS MADE IT UP TO THE NC/VA
BORDER. KEPT THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE SERN HALF OF
FA...BASICALLY ALONG AND S OF THE H8 LOW PATH...AND PUT IN THE
PSBLTY OF THUNDER FOR THE FAR SRN ZONES. WITH THE SFC FRONT TO THE S
AND THE WEAK ERLY FLOW OVER ALL OF AREA DONT THINK THE THUNDER...IF
IT OCCURS...WILL AMOUNT TO ANYTHING SEVERE.

WITH THE NEG TILT MID LVL TROF EXITING TOMORROW...BRISK/BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE IN THE FCST. THE IMPULSE PUSHES THROUGH NRN ZONES AND
HAVE KEPT THE PSBLTY OF AM SHOWERS THERE. OTHERWISE A CATABATIC KIND
OF DAY.

AVN AND ETA THEN START TO DIVERGE WITH THE MID LVL TROF OVER SERN
CANADA AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC FEATURE...WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL
FAVORING THE AVN. THEY HAVE A DEEPER MID LVL CIRCULATION...AND THE
LOW LEVEL FEATURE IS DEEPER AND SLOWER THAN THE ETA. HAVE WENT THIS
WAY...SO ALTHOUGH BRING IN SOME CLOUDS...KEEP THE PCPN OUT THROUGH
TUE.

DIDNT FINESSE TEMPS TOO MUCH. WITH THE CATABATIC FLOW TOMORROW
GENERALLY STAYED ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF STAT GUIDANCE. CAA IS
THERE...BUT NOT VERY STRONG AFTER AN INITIAL SHOT. ALTHOUGH FCSTING
SOME CLOUDS TMRW NITE THEY SHOULD BE HIGH CLOUDS...AND WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH...SO WENT A TAD COOLER IN THE RADIATING ZONES. ON TUE...
WITH A DECENT SWLY FLOW AGAIN BOUGHT OFF ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

MARINE FCSTR CONCERNED ABOUT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING...MAINLY BECAUSE
OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TONIGHT. ZONES ARE HEADLINED FOR THE
PSBLTY. ALSO...WITH THE WINDS PICKING UP AS THE TROF TILTS AND THE
SFC FEATURE WINDS UP OFF OUR COAST...SCA CONDS EXPECTED EITHER
TOWARD DAYBREAK OR JUST AFTER.

FCSTID = 45
MPO   35  49  29  53 / 100  30  20  20
ABE   40  54  32  59 / 100  30  20  20
RDG   40  55  32  60 / 100  30  20  20
PHL   43  57  39  63 / 100  20  10  20
12N   39  52  29  57 / 100  30  20  20
SMQ   41  56  31  61 / 100  20  10  20
TTN   41  56  33  61 / 100  20  10  20
MIV   44  59  32  64 / 100  20   0  10
ACY   45  59  44  56 / 100  20   0  10
ILG   43  57  35  63 / 100  20  10  20
DOV   45  59  36  64 / 100  20   0  10
GED   45  59  36  64 / 100  20   0  10
ESN   45  59  36  64 / 100  20   0  10

.PHI...
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SML CRFT ADVSRY CST AND BAY ANZ450>455-430-431.

MPD