Flood in Colorado, September 13, 2002

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
235 PM MDT FRI SEP 13 2002

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOW LIFTING ACRS
XTRM NERN CO WITH TROF AXIS PASSING ACRS DEN AREA NOW WITH A BAND OF
TSTMS.  THERE IS WRAP-AROUND MSTR THAT HAS MOVED BACK INTO THE NRN
MTNS FM WY BUT WITH PTL PROFILER SHOWING INCRSG NWLY FLOW VCNTY OF
700 MB AND ALSO SEEING WDSPRD NWLY WINDS AT SFC STATIONS IN
WY...THIS STRONG SINKING SIGNAL EAST OF THE DIVIDE SHD MAKE IT HARD
FOR ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY TRY TO MOVE OFF
THE FTHLS.  FARTHER EAST ACTIVITY WILL STILL OCCUR THIS EVNG AND BE
STRONGER.  CRNT FCST LUKS TO HAVE A GUD HANDLE ON THIS EVNGS WX.
THEN WE SETTLE INTO A NELY LOW LVL FLOW LATER TNGT AND THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THIS CUD RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF FOG ARND TWDS
DAYBREAK...THO COUNTERING THIS IS SFC FLOW OUT OF THE NNE ON THE
PLAINS CUD BE 10 KTS OR MORE.  SO WILL GO WITH CLEARING AND NO FOG
OVNGT.  FOR SAT THE LOW LVL UPSLOPE IS IN PLACE BUT MID LVLS WILL BE
WARMING WITH UPR LVL RIDGE BUILDING EAST SO AT BEST SOME CU CUD DVLP
BUT SEEMS UNLIKLY ANY WUD LEAD TO RAIN...EVEN IN THE MTNS...SO SUNNY
AND DELIGHTFUL DAY AS IN CRNT FCST LUKS GUD.  GETTING A LITTLE
WARMER ON SUN WITH RETURN SLY FLOW ON THE PLAINS AND MAYBE A DEN
CYCLONE BUT TOO DRY FOR ANYTHING.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION: CLOSED UPR LVL LOW WELL OFF THE WEST COAST
OPENS UP AND MOVES INTO NRN CA BY SUN AFTN AND THEN ROTATES ACRS CO
LATE MON/MON NGT.  ENUF MSTR TO PUT ISOLD TSTMS FOR MTNS LATER MON
WHL ON PLAINS CUD GET SOME DWNSLOPE FLOW WITH TMPS WELL INTO THE 80S
AND MAYBE A 90 OR TWO ARND (STILL 5 DAYS SHY OF THE RECORD).  THEN
THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL THRU THE WEEK THO THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE ENSEMBLES AND AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS WITH THE
EURO MODELS AND THE CANADIAN MODEL SHOWING MORE AMPLITUDE WHILE THE
MRF/AVN (GFS) IS ZONAL.  WITH THIS AMNT OF UNCERTAINTY WONT ADJUST
MUCH IN THE LONGER RANGE FCST BEYOND THE ADDITION OF THE MTN TSTMS
FOR LATER MON, WITH TUE COOLER THO THAN THE WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT ON MONDAY.  SZOKE

.DEN...NONE.

COZ030>051-132000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1100 AM MDT FRI SEP 13 2002

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE  BOULDER     BROOMFIELD  CLEAR CREEK  DENVER
DOUGLAS   ELBERT    GILPIN      GRAND       JACKSON      JEFFERSON
LARIMER   LINCOLN   LOGAN       MORGAN      PARK         PHILLIPS
SEDGWICK  SUMMIT    WASHINGTON  WELD

SYNOPSIS: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WAS
PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE MOVING TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  IT SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING.  THIS WEATHER SYSTEM
IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE DAY AND EVENING WEAR ON.

WITH THE ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...MANY OF THE SHOWERS
WILL AGAIN PRODUCE WETTING RAINS AND THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RATHER HEAVY DOWNPOURS...PERHAPS UP TO
AN INCH IN AN HOUR OR SO.  THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR
FLOODING ONCE AGAIN EXISTS.  RAINS THAT FALL ON THE BURN AREAS IN
THE FOOTHILLS COULD ALSO TRIGGER MUD AND ROCK SLIDES.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON SO
SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE
PUTTING OUT SOME HAIL.  MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE HAIL SHOULD BE
UNDER SEVERE LIMITS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA EXITS COLORADO
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA IN ITS WAKE.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MINIMAL TO NONE ON SATURDAY.

NOTE...BEGINNING OCTOBER 1 2002...THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO WILL BE ISSUED UNDER THE AWIPS
IDENTIFIER HWOBOU WITH A WMO HEADING OF FLUS45 KBOU.  AT THAT TIME
THE OUTLOOK WILL ALSO BE EXTENDED TO DISCUSS EXPECTED HAZARDOUS
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
ET