Wildfire in Colorado, July 30 to 31, 2002

WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1200 PM MDT MON JUL 29 2002

MAIN JET STREAM IS CURRENTLY WELL TO THE NORTH OVER SOUTHER CANADA...
WITH MOST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. UNDER A ZONAL FLOW. A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE SOUTHWEST, BRINGING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

THIS HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A STRONG AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE, COMBINED WITH A 700 MB WARM CORE DIRECTLY OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS, WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. A WIDE VARIETY OF NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING VS WARMING DRAINAGE WINDS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FORECAST. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH
UPPER LEVEL HUMIDITIES EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 30 PERCENT UP TO 250
MB. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE SHOWED A CAP
THAT HAS PRECLUDED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THIS SHOULD REMAIN SO
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE FROM DYING TROPICAL STORM ELIDA MAKES ITS
WAY INTO THE REGION.  BA

(THU-MON)...RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN LATE THU. THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AND RIDES NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SAT.  FEEL THAT THU-SAT BEST DAYS...THEN THE
RIDGE EXPANDS WESTWARD WHICH IS NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL NOT CHANGE
TEMPERATURE TREND FOR COOLER HIGHS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER
THROUGH SAT. THEN WEAK WARMING TREND ON SUN AND MON.  HEFFERNAN

.GJT...NONE.