Tornadoes and Hail in Wisconsin, July 30, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
415 PM CDT TUE JUL 30 2002

TSTM CHCS AND THREAT OF SVR WILL BE THE CONCERN THROUGH WEDS NGT/THURS
MORNING.

TSTMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER S MN ALONG SFC TROF...AND IN AN AXIS
OF MOISTURE CONVG AND STG INSTABILITY (LIS -12 TO -14 ACCORDING TO MSAS
ANALYSIS). DEVELOPMENT HAS NOT BEEN EXPLOSIVE...LIKELY DUE TO SOME
CAPPING. WV IMAGERY SHOWED AN AREA OF SUBTLE DARKENING MOVG THROUGH
CNTRL MN...INDICATIVE OF A WEAK S/W TROF.

EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST INTO GRB CWA THIS EVG...
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS INTO EASTERN WI. SHEAR IS NOT REAL
IMPRESSIVE...SO WILL LEAVE SVR WORDING OUT FOR NOW. MORE TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS LLVL WAA DEVELOPS NORTH OF A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT.

ON WEDS...THE MODELS ALL SHOW SOME THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH
THE FA DURING THE DAY...WITH STG INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING OVER
THE WSTRN PERIPHERY OF GRB CWA. SHEAR INCREASES DRAMATICALLY AS 40KT SSW
LLJ DEVELOPS OVER WI. THERE ARE SEVERAL CONCERNS...INCLUDING THE EFFECTS
OF ANY LINGERING PRECIP DURING THE MORNING...WHETHER THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BE STRONGLY CAPPED...AND IF UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE PRESENT. WITH SO MANY
QUESTIONS...WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAVE ANY SVR WORDING OUT UNTIL THE
SITUATION CLARIFIES ITSELF. THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATER WEDS NGT. GIVEN
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...SVR THREAT IS NOT A GIVEN THEN EITHER. WILL
LINGER PRECIP CHCS INTO THURS OVER THE SE 1/2 OF THE FA...WITH DRY WX
ARRIVING THURS NGT/FRI.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES ON SATURDAY...BUT MODELS HAVE SLOWED
THIS FEATURE DOWN TOO...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT DRY FCST FOR
SATURDAY...AND THE CHC OF PRECIP ON SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE FOR
FIRST PART OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

.GRB...NONE.

KIECKBUSCH
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-301500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
600 AM CDT TUE JUL 30 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TODAY AND THEN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TONIGHT.  FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...OR ROUGHLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM MERRILL TO RHINELANDER TO FLORENCE.  THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS ELSEWHERE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ALLOW VERY WARM
AND MORE MOIST AIR TO RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  LATER TODAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO PARTS OF
NORTHERN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.  ALTHOUGH THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SCATTERED...DUE TO DEVELOPING STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS.  THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTS FURTHER EAST BEFORE STALLING.

ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WISCONSIN FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS SECOND
FRONT.  AGAIN DUE TO THE VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...A FEW STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND
THEN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SPOTTER ACTIVATION
MAY ALSO BE NEEDED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED AT NOON.

HELMAN
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB