Drought in California, September 1 to 30, 2002

INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
915 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2002

TEMPERATURES IN THE CWFA UP FROM 2 TO 4 DEGS FROM YESTERDAY
REFLECTING THE MAX TEMP INCREASE. WHILE 500 MB PRESSURE NOT CHANGING
MUCH OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...1000-500 THICKNESS RAISES 40-50M.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN WEAK. WITH A LOWERED MARINE LAYER
TO AROUND 1K FEET ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND 88D VAD WIND PROFILE
DEPICTING NO LOW LEVEL JET FOR THE SJ VALLEY THIS EVENING...NO
REASON TO NOT RAISE TEMPS WITH THE THICKNESS INCREASE DEPICTED BY
THE MODELS. HAVE TWEAKED GRIDDED TEMPS UP VERY SLIGHTLY FROM DAY
PACKAGE FOR SJ VALLEY AND MOUNTAIN FORECASTS...DESERT TEMPS LOOK
FINE. ALTHOUGH THE HEIGHTS LOWER SLIGHTLY TUESDAY...THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN IS QUITE PERSISTENT AND
BUILDS WESTWARD THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK.

THE CHALLENGE SATURDAY WAS IN REGARD TO AMOUNT OF NORTHWARD PUSH OF
THE MOISTURE STREAMING FROM FORMER T.S. GENEVIEVE. MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE DID NOT MAKE IT NORTH OF A VANDENBERG-LAKE ISABELLA
TODAY. SATELLITE ANALYSIS WITH AVN 00Z RUN INDICATES THAT WEAK LOW
ALOFT OVER SFO MAY BE A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH... NORTHWARD MOISTURE
PUSH FROM GENEVIEVE LIKELY TO HOLD. BIGGER PROBLEM WOULD BE AMOUNT
OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY FOR ZONES 96 AND 97...S.SIERRA FROM YOSEMITE
THROUGH TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECASTS
INDICATE ESSENTIALLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. NO CONFIDENCE IN THIS
CONVECTIVE SPECULATION...SO WILL LEAVE FORECASTS ALONE FOR FURTHER
ANALYSIS BY MID-SHIFT.

NO FURTHER INFORMATION ON EXTENDED FROM THAT ALREADY MENTIONED.
TRANSITION FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THAT OF TROUGH AT MIDWEEK.
PER PREVIOUS DISCUSSION WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIME PERIOD TO MARK THAT
TRANSITION.

.HNX...NONE.

GUDGEL