Heavy Rain in California, May 31, 2002

WESTERN NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
330 PM PDT FRI MAY 31 2002

EJECTING UPPER LOW OFF NRN BAJA BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS TO
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT SHOWERS REPORTED AT
HAWTHORNE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION POPPING UP MAINLY OVER
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE USUAL MONO LAKE-BATTLE MOUNTAIN CONVERGENCE
ZONE. EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH
DYNAMICS FROM MERGING OF NRN CA TROUGH AND EJECTING SRN CA LOW. MESO
MODELS PAINT MOST QPF OVER MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES TONIGHT AND
WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THOSE AREAS. LINGERING MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS NOTED OVER WRN NV SAT MORNING AS VORT MAX MOVES ACROSS AREA
SO WILL HOLD ONTO SHOWERS IN RENO-TAHOE AREA EARLY SAT MORNING
BEFORE WLY WINDS KICK IN AND PUSH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EWD BY MIDDAY.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER
WEAK TROUGH AND VORT MAX MOVES INLAND FM ERN PAC. AVN GENERATES
LIGHT QPF AND LI OF ZERO OR LESS OVER MUCH OF CWA SUNDAY AFTN. WILL
STICK WITH LOW CHC POPS ON SUNDAY AFTN. TROUGH MOVES EWD MONDAY FOR
CLEARING SKIES UNDER NWLY FLOW. CYLKE

IN THE EXTENDED...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT EASTERN PACIFIC
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND BRING DRY
WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND.  EURO NOT AS PROGRESSIVE WITH OLD
TROF...DEVELOPING A CUTOFF OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  FORECAST
TRENDS TOWARD THE AVN/MRF/UKMET.
A NE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER TUESDAY BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. SURFACE
THERMAL TROF MOVES EAST OF THE SIERRA AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NW THURSDAY...PROVIDING SOME AFTERNOON WINDS. FAVORED
CONVERGENCE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST MAY HAVE SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS
BUILDUPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...OTHERWISE HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
THE 90S IN MOST VALLEYS UNDER SUNNY SKIES. SG

.REV...NONE.