Rip Current in North Carolina, May 31, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
220 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2002

...HOT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES ON TAP...

SHORT TERM: UNLESS COVERAGE INCREASES WILL HANDLE ANY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS WITH NOWCASTS AND KEEP PCPN OUT OF THE FCST
TONIGHT.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER NICE..ALBEIT HOT...WEEKEND WEATHER PICTURE FOR
ALL OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS WEEKEND. DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION CURRENTLY WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL REALLY DRY OUT THE LOW LEVELS AS EVIDENCED IN
ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR SAT/SUNDAY. DOWNSLOPE WARMING WILL ALSO AID
IN WARMING THE ATMOSPHERE. T1 TEMPS WARM ABOVE 30C AND 850 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST IN THE 18-20C RANGE. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE
90S INLAND. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHEST THKNS
AND WARMEST 850 TEMPS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SPOTS
TOUCH THE MID 90S.

ALTHOUGH SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL PASS ACROSS EASTERN NC IN
THE NWRLY FLOW ALOFT...PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE VERY
LOW...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOIST. A WEAK SFC
TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT OVR WESTERN SECTIONS BOTH DAYS AND A
RESULTANT SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
FEATURES COULD SERVE AS TRIGGER FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE LIMITED TO A FEW CELLS. THINKING HERE IS TO GO WITH A 20%
(SLGT CHC) ON SAT WITH MOIST 850-750 LAYER SEEN ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.
ON SUNDAY ONLY SCANT MOIST OBSERVED BELOW 700 MB AND WILL CARRY
ISOLD BUT NO POP. THKNS PACKING ACROSS THE MID-ATCL INDICATES MAIN
SYNOPTIC SCALE BNDRY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH MUCH LESS
EXTENSIVE CU FIELDS LIKELY.

EFP: WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS ON EVOL OF CUT OFF GULF OF
MEXICO UPPER LOW...AGREE WITH ILM IN GOING WITH A SLOWER AND DRIER
SOLN THAN ADVERTISED IN THE AVN AS UPPER LOW LIKELY TO LANGUISH IN
THE DEEP SOUTH. IF ETA CORRECT WITH UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WE WILL BE IN
A TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING DIURNAL CONVECTION PATTERN WITH STORMS
TIED MAINLY TO THE SEA BREEZE. WILL GO WITH 30ISH POPS AND TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

MARINE: WEEKEND GEARED MORE FOR BOATERS THAN SURFERS. SEA STATE
TRANQUIL CURRENTLY IN RESIDUAL 3 FOOT SE SWELL AND LGT WIND CHOP.
SW WIND TO PICK UP OVERNIGHT 15 TO 20 KT RANGE AS COLD FRONT N
NEARS. FEATURE WILL BRING LOOSENED PMSL FIELD N OF HATTERAS SAT
RESULTING IN LGT VRBL WINDS ALG NRN COAST AND ALBEMARLE SOUND. AS
AN UPPER TROF AXIS TRANSLATES THRU NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY...FRONT WILL
PASS OFFSHORE SHIFTING WIND TO THE W-NW SUN OVER THE MHX WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVSRY COND NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MINOR SW SURGE XPTD
TNGT AND LTL NW SURGE (20KT) NRN COAST SUN 12Z-18Z. DUE TO PESKY
SLUGGISH FRONT SLATED TO SCRAPE NRN SECTIONS...WILL SEPARATE SOUNDS
IN CWF THIS PCKG.

RIP CURRENT THREAT HAT SWD INCLUDING CRYSTAL COAST COULD BECOME
INCREASED SAT WITH 15-20 KT WIND OVERNIGHT INTO ERLY SAT COUPLED
WITH VESTIGES OF SE SWELL.

.MHX...NONE.

ELARDO/COLBY