Wildfire in California, May 21, 2002

EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 AM PDT TUE MAY 21 2002

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS MORNING WILL KEEP CLOUDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WEDNESDAY
WITH FAIR AND A LITTLE WARMER WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A LOT OF CLOUDS OVER THE
LAND FROM THE CREST OF THE MOUNTAINS TO THE COAST AND SOME CLOUDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED. ALERT WIND GAUGES HAVE BEEN SHOWING SOME WIND IN THE
EASTERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS BUT WIND SPEEDS WELL BE WIND
ADVISORY LEVELS AND WIND CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. LITTLE OR NO WIND
REPORTED AT ANY OF THE ASOS SIGHTS IN THE COACHELLA VALLEY AND THE
AWOS AT THE BORREGO VALLEY AIRPORT REPORTING NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS.
THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE DROPPED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERNIGHT FROM NEARLY 16 MBS ONSHORE BETWEEN KSAN AND KTPH MONDAY
MORNING TO ABOUT 7 MBS ONSHORE THIS MORNING.

12Z ETA AND NGM ARE SIMILAR THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH THE S/WV TROUGH
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVING
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA REMAINS UNDER A WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH 48 HOURS
BUT HEIGHTS RISE AND LITTLE OR NO DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CYCLONIC FLOW SO EXPECT FAIRLY GOOD DRYING OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS. TIMEHEIGH CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE ETA MODEL INDICATE A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT DROP IN THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED LOWERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL STRATUS/FOG NEAR THE COAST
NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. SOME AFTERNOON CU ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS BUT NO DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED.  ETA INDICATES A LITTLE LESS
CYCLONIC FLOW BUT CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY FOR A
LITTLE MORE WARMING.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD INDICATING A LITTLE MORE SIGNIFICANT RIDGE BUILDING EARLY
NEXT WEEK FOR A LITTLE MORE WARMING.

WIND OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
BUT THE MESO ETA DOES INDICATE SOME IMCREASE THIS AFTERNOON SO THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. SEE LAXCWFSGX FOR DETAILS.

THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS REASONABLE SO NO UPDATES ARE
PLANNED.

.SAN...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUTER WATERS...SEE LAXCWFSGX.

HORTON