High Wind in Kansas, May 21, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
232 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2002

...WIND ADVISORY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WIND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING AND
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE GREAT SALT LAKE WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CONVECTION FIRING UP OVER
NORTHERN UTAH AND WESTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. WINDY CONDITIONS
HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION TODAY WITH THE TIGHT
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THE
HIGH CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

MODEL PATTERNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP MAINLY IN THE S/WVS LIFTING OUT
OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. BETWEEN LATE WEDNESDAY
AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE DRYER ETA HAS BEEN DOING BETTER THAN THE OTHER
MODELS...ALTHOUGH IT WAS A LITTLE TOO WARM ON YESTERDAYS RUN FOR
TODAY. WILL STILL GO WITH THE ETA MODEL FOR THIS PACKAGE.

THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH
THE GRADIENT DECREASING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WINDS SHOULD STAY
UP THIS EVENING UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES EAST OF THE AREA...SO
WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

NGM MOS AND AVN ARE BREAKING OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE TIMING OF THE ETA
BRINGING IN THE UPPER VORT MAX AROUND 06Z AS THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
DISSIPATES...FEEL ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  HAVE THEREFORE DUMPED THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

WILL CHANGE THE EXTENDED SOME BY MOVING THE MENTION OF EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS TO MONDAY EVENING.  OTHERWISE WILL KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

.GLD...WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.

LOCKHART

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-212200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1045 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2002

HERE IS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EASTERN COLORADO.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. A
SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP...STRENGTHEN AND
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...CALLED A CAP...AND THE LACK OF
LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE...WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS.

DURING THE EVENING HOURS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND MAY MOVE
INTO...OR DEVELOP ACROSS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR.
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
AT 45 MPH.

ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
55 MPH WILL CONTINUE...OR DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT
(100 AM CDT)...AND ANY REPORTS ON THESE WINDS WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

RUBIN