Winter Storm and Heavy Snow in California, March 22 to 24, 2002

INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
330 PM PST FRI MAR 22 2002

WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
LOW NEAR 40N/130W WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHING
ONSHORE. WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY ALLOWED
TEMPERATURE TO REACH INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...EVEN WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. REGIONAL DOPPLER RADARS NOW SHOWING ENHANCED
AREAS OF PRECIP PUSHING ONSHORE AND HEADING INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT TIMING STILL LOOKING GOOD WITH THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP INVADING THE DISTRICT THIS EVENING AND SPREADING SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. VERY LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE STARTED OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE DISTRICT AND EXPECTING THE ATMOSPHERE TO CONTINUE TO
MOISTEN AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS ENTERS THE AREA. THE SSM/I SATELLITE
ANALYSIS SHOWS NEAR ONE INCH TOTAL PRECIP WATER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BAND SO FEEL LIKELY POPS FOR THE VALLEY AND CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE WARRANTED TONIGHT.

WITH GOOD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ALIGNING WITH
THE MOISTURE...WILL UPGRADE THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR ZONE 96 /YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON/ AND PLACE ZONE 97
/TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAIN/ IN A SNOW ADVISORY...BOTH FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. QPF VALUES ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE SO WILL
MAKE IT A LOW END WARNING WITH ACCUMULATIONS JUST REACH WARNING
CRITERIA. ACCUMULATIONS OVER TULARE COUNTY SHOULD NOT HAVE A
PROBLEM REACH SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA LEVELS. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL
LIFT ON SATURDAY ALLOWING THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE TO ENTER THE
DISTRICT LATER SATURDAY EVENIG. THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL PLACE THE
DISTRICT UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND CHANNELED VORTICITY. WILL THEREFORE
MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AND WINDY TO VERY WINDY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN THE DESERTS.

BY MONDAY...WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION
ALLOWING THE DISTRICT TO DRY OUT. HOWEVER...CURRENT MODEL SOLUTION
IN THE NEAR-TERM AND MEDIUM RANGE SUGGEST A RETURN TO UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ON AROUND LATER TUESDAY. PREFER THE AVN SOLUTION OF
DROPPING AN UPPER LOW ONTO THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY AND SWINGING
IT THROUGH BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE PRECIP ON
TUESDAY AND CONTINUE IT ON WEDNESDAY.

THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE IS STILL PROG TO BE A FAST MOVER AND EXIT THE
REGION BY EARLY THURSDAY. WILL MAINTAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DRY.
WITH THE MOVEMENT OF SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PUSHING THROUGH THE
DISTRICT...WILL KEEP THE WINDS UP THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

.HNX...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM
       YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ABOVE 4000
       FEET.
    ...SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS TONIGHT
       AND SATURDAY ABOVE 5000 FEET.

MOLINA/JSN