Wildfire in California, July 25 to 26, 2002

EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PDT THU JUL 25 2002

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL WEAKEN ON
FRIDAY...AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN GRADUAL COOLING THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A CATALINA EDDY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DEEPER
MARINE LAYER AND MORE EXTENSIVE NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS.

.DISCUSSION...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVENTED ANY CONVECTION FROM
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MOUNTAINS CONTINUE
TO SPIRAL DOWNWARD RESULTING IN LOWER HUMIDITIES. THE INVERSION WAS
QUITE STRONG THIS MORNING (AROUND 13 DEGREES) AND CLOUDS AND DENSE
FOG HUNG AROUND THE BEACHES UNTIL MID MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF.
THE INVERSION WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN AND THE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST.

THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED MARINE LAYER CLOUDS ROUNDING PT
CONCEPTION THIS AFTERNOON ON STRONG NW WINDS. A COASTAL EDDY WILL
FORM TONIGHT AND LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN
THE DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND MORE EXTENSIVE COASTAL CLOUDS EACH DAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

NEXT WEEK AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REFORM OVER THE WEST COAST FOR SLIGHT
WARMING. WILL BE MONITORING HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ELIDA THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. ITS POSSIBLE
THAT SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE SW FLOW AND
MOVE ACROSS CA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER
IT WILL IMPACT CENTRAL CA OR SOUTHERN CA.

.SAN...NONE.

MOEDE