Wildfire in California, July 10, 2002

EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
230 PM PDT WED JUL 10 2002

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE IN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DRIFT WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY. GRADUALLY COOLER INLAND AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST SLOWLY WEAKENS.

.DISCUSSION...THERE WERE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG NEAR THE COAST THIS
AM...MAINLY IN SAN COUNTY. THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG SPREAD N ALONG THE COAST
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LOTS OF MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS IN ELY FLOW ALOFT. 12Z
NKX SOUNDING HAD A STRONG INVERSION BASED BELOW 1000 FT AND WAS MORE
UNSTABLE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO 1.38 INCHES. ONSHORE GRADIENTS TO
THE E WITH ABOUT 4 MB SAN-IPL.

STRONG UPPER HI OVER THE SW DRIFTS A LITTLE TO THE N AND THEN E THROUGH
FRI. LOTS OF MID/HI LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES IN ELY FLOW ALOFT FOR A
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS. THE FLOW ALOFT COULD CARRY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS W OF THE MOUNTAINS. A VORT MAX PROGED TO SWEEP THROUGH
FROM THE SE TO NW TONIGHT AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS PATTERN OF OCCASIONAL WEAK ELY
WAVES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRI. STRONG ENOUGH MID LEVEL FLOW
TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SO THAT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL NOT BE
TOO GREAT...UNLESS STORMS TRAIN OVER ONE SPOT. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
WILL CAUSE INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN THE MOUNTAINS. A SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER WILL BE DISRUPTED BY MONSOONAL MOISTURE FOR AREAS OF COASTAL LOW
CLOUDS/FOG. A LITTLE COOLER DUE TO SMALL DECREASE IN LOCAL HEIGHTS AND
MORE CLOUDS/RH. HOWEVER...PROBABLY STILL SOME NEAR RECORD MAX TEMPS IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

LONGER RANGE PROGS INDICATE UPPER HI BECOMING CENTERED NEAR THE 4
CORNERS AREA AND FLOW ALOFT REMAINING SELY. THIS WILL CONTINUE CHANCE OF
MOUNTAIN/DESERT THUNDERSTORMS. STILL A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OR
THUNDERSTORMS W OF MOUNTAINS BUT PROBABILITIES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
EXTENDED PERIODS. A LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWER HEIGHTS.

NOTE...THE ROUTINE 930 AM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL NO LONGER BE
ISSUED. THE ROUTINE 330 AM...230 PM AND 930 PM DISCUSSIONS WILL CONTINUE
AND NON-ROUTINE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

.SAN...NONE.

ATKIN