Winter Storm in California, December 14 to 15, 2002

INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
300 PM PST SAT DEC 14 2002

MID AFTERNOON SATPIX AND REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE THE CORE FRONTAL
BAND SLAMMING INTO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST.  WITH IT...SSMI
DEPICTS RAINFALL RATES UP TO ONE INCH PER HOUR MOVING INTO THE BAY
AREA. PRECIPITATION EXTENDS SSWD BUT LIGHTENS SUBSTANTIALLY SOUTH OF
THE MONTEREY BAY. AS THIS RAIN SHIELD APPROACHES THE DISTRICT LATER
THIS EVENING...MUCH OF THIS RAIN WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT ALONG THE
WINDWARD COASTAL RANGES DUE TO FORMIDABLE H85 WINDS ON THE ORDER OF
50KT PER THE LATEST KHNX VAD WIND PROFILE. THUS...PRECIPITATION ON
THE VALLEY FLOOR TONIGHT WILL BE LESS THAN SPECTACULAR...BUT A FEW
LOCALES TOWARDS MERCED MAY PICK UP A GOOD HALF INCH. SOUTH VALLEY
AREAS MAY FIND IT ROUGH GOING TO PICK UP EVEN A TENTH OF AN INCH
TONIGHT FROM THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...WITH EXCELLENT OROGRAPHICS AND
VERY RESPECTABLE H7 OMEGA OF 12+ MICROBARS/SEC...SIERRA ABOVE 5500
FEET SHOULD SEE A FOOT OR TWO OF SNOW BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE.
ANOTHER CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING RESTS WITH THE WINDS IN THE VALLEY.
IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...MOST WINDS HAVE
RAMPED UP THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE LOCALLY EXCEEDING ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING
FOR OUR NORTHERN VALLEY LOCALES.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END EARLY SUNDAY FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH THE ETA INDICATES SOME LINGERING MOISTURE NEAR THE
CREST. HAVE RETAINED SOME POPS FOR THESE AREAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
NEXT IMPULSE COMES RIDING DOWN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL RECOVER A BIT BY THEN...AS WAA SETS UP SHOP. THUS...SNOW
LEVELS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 7000 FEET UNTIL AROUND 00Z TUESDAY.
SUBSEQUENT DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO RIDE IN ON THE FAST
FLOW...WARRANTING A CONTINUED MENTION OF POPS THEREAFTER. BY
THEN...ENOUGH COLD AIR BECOMES ADVECTED INTO THE REGION TO FORCE
SIERRA SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 3500 FEET TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

BURGER

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE
MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A BREAK LATER WED INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THURS...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER HEIGHTS REMAIN LOW...LESS THAN 558DM. THOUGH LOWERING POPS
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD...CANNOT ELIMINATE ENTIRELY. ON THURS...GFS HAS
SUDDENLY BUCKED MODEL TRENDS. IT WANTS TO KEEP THE THURS LOW WELL
OFF THE CENTRAL COAST AS IT DIGS SE...WHICH WOULD MOST CERTAINLY
KEEP CENTRAL CA INTERIOR ON THE DRY SIDE. HOWEVER...SINCE THIS IS A
SUDDEN CHANGE AND NOT SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODELS...WILL STICK WITH
GOING FCST OF MORE PRECIP THURS AFTERNOON INTO FRI. SAT BECOMES AN
EVEN BIGGER PROBLEM. PER NCEP/S DISCUSSION...ENSEMBLES HAVE A VERY
WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS. SO HAVE KEPT THAT UNCERTAINTY AND INDICATED
SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE. THE FRI-SAT FCST HAS VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE LEVEL. TEMPS WILL BE COOL THRU THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH
SNOW LEVELS POSSIBLY INTO THE FOOTHILLS AT TIMES.   BINGHAM

.HNX...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM
       YOSEMITE TO THE TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THROUGH
       SUNDAY MORNING.
    ...WIND ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN
       VALLEY THIS EVENING.
    ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM
       YOSEMITE TO THE TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
       MONDAY.

CAZ089>099-151400-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
549 AM PST SAT DEC 14 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE
NATIONAL PARK THROUGH THE TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS.  (PLEASE REFER
TO SFOWSWHNX...WWUS46 KHNX).

STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY MAY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK THROUGH
THE TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS. THE WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF STRONG WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL
WINTER STORM WARNINGS. (PLEASE REFER TO SFOWSWHNX...WWUS46 KHNX).

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

KB