High Wind in California, April 16 to 18, 2002

INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
910 PM PDT TUE APR 16 2002

COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BARRELING SOUTHWARD
THIS EVENING. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...CLOUDS AND WIND HAVE
BEEN ON THE INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL CA...AND PRECIP...AT LEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA...IS NOT FAR BEHIND.

COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP MOVING INTO
THE NORTHERN SJ VLY AT THIS TIME AND DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF MARIPOSA COUNTY. THE 00Z MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS
SYSTEM MORE AGGRESSIVELY THAN PREVIOUS RUNS BY BRINGING DYNAMICS
FARTHER SOUTH AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE OLDER AVN SOLUTION. THE
MESO-ETA IN PARTICULAR...FORECASTS AN OMEGA BULLSEYE OF 20
MICROBARS/SEC OVER THE HIER ELEVATIONS OF FRESNO CO BY 12Z WED.
NONETHELESS...THE DYNAMICS APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR A
HEALTHY PRECIP EVENT IN THE SIERNEV...ESP NORTH OF KINGS CANYON.
THIS WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT LATER TONIGHT AND WED MORNING WHERE
THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET (100+ KT)...COUPLED WITH A STRONG
VORT MAX...BRING ADDED LIFT AND ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC PRECIP.(PERHAPS
EVEN ISOLD TSTMS) MODEL QPF COMPARISONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z CLEARLY
INDICATE AN INCREASED TREND. IN LIGHT OF UNUSUALLY LOW SNOW LEVELS
FOR SO LATE IN THE SEASON...HAVE DECIDED TO LAUNCH A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR LATER TONIGHT AND WED MORNING IN ZONE 96.

WHILE MUCH OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OROGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED...IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTRAL SJ VLY WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO THE (VORT)MAX TRACK TO GENERATE SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. BASED ON
MODEL TRENDS DESCRIBED ABOVE...WILL BUMP UP FIRST PERIOD POPS IN
ZONES 89 AND 90. IN ADDITION...SELECT RAWS SITES OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ARE ALREADY REPORTING WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. WITH
WINDS FORECAST TO INCREASE TONIGHT...WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE TULARE CO MTNS AND THE KERN CO MTNS AND DESERT FOR TONIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SJ VLY ARE ALREADY
GUSTING TO 35 MPH AT THE RAWS STATIONS IN LOS BANOS AND KETTLEMAN
HILLS...SO WILL ISSUE WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES 89 AND 91 FOR
TONIGHT AND WED MORNING.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...AND AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE CWA WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL AS BROAD UPPER
LEVEL LOW SETTLES SOUTHWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND BACKS INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. CURRENT FORECAST PKG HANDLES THIS PRETTY WELL.

.HNX...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
       FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON.
    ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 900 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE TULARE COUNTY
       MOUNTAINS AND THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT.
    ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 900 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE WEST SIDE OF THE
       SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.

DURFEE

CAZ093>099-170432-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
333 PM PDT TUE APR 16 2002

...A WINTER LIKE STORM WILL BRING RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW TO
THE SIERRA NEVADA...AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

A COLD PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE...SOUTH INTO THE TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS. THE
STORM WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
PASSES LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR YOSEMITE BY MIDNIGHT...
SPREADING BY EARLY MORNING TO MOST OF THE SIERRA NEVADA NORTH OF
KERN COUNTY. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...
THEN DECREASE BY AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ABOUT 2 TO 6
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AT YOSEMITE PARK...WITH LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS
FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. THE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOWER THAN USUAL FOR
MID-APRIL...DROPPING TO AROUND 3000 TO 4000 FEET NEAR YOSEMITE...AND
3500 TO 4500 FEET OVER THE TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 25 TO 35 MPH BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH STRONGER GUSTS OVER THE
RIDGES AND THROUGH AND BELOW THE PASSES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH POSSIBLE
BELOW THE TEHACHAPI AND WALKER PASSES.

PERSONS PLANNING TRAVEL INTO THE SIERRA NEVADA...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
KINGS CANYON...SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AND
CONDITIONS. BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HAZARDOUS WINTER LIKE
TRAVEL CONDITIONS...AND CARRY CHAINS AS NEEDED.

PEOPLE LIVING IN...OR TRAVELING THROUGH...THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS...SHOULD BE ALERT FOR WINDY CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. IF TRAVELING...BE PREPARED FOR GUSTY CROSS WINDS AND
AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING DUST OR SAND. REMEMBER THAT
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES...INCLUDING CAMPERS AND TRAILERS...ARE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO GUSTY WINDS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE NEWS SOURCE...
FOR UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING STORM.

OR VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/HANFORD.

SANGER