Hail in Arkansas, March 25, 2002

Name: Hail in Arkansas, March 25, 2002
Start: 2002-03-25T22:30
End: 2002-03-25T23:05
Location: Arkansas

March 25, 2002 · NWS JAN · 2 events in 2 counties and zones

2 hail, as filed by the National Weather Service.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

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The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 2

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 25, 3:10 PM CST, 7 hours 20 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 25, 3:10 PM CST, 7 hours 20 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
310 PM CST MON MAR 25 2002

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS: INITIATION AND INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...AMOUNT OF COLD ADVECTION
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...PRECIP POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH QUICK WARM
ADVECTION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION FOR
FRIDAY THRU MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER LOW.

A DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND
EVOLUTION STILL IN CONSIDERABLE DOUBT. THE WELL-ADVERTISED SPLIT
POLAR/SUBTROPICAL JET STRUCTURE IS IN PLACE...WITH PERSISTENT
ELEVATED TSTM COMPLEX OVER OZARKS...AND STILL WAITING FOR SFC-BASED
TSTM DEVELOPMENT...SUPPRESSED SO FAR BY STRONG MID LEVEL CAPPING
INVERSION. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS RECENT FORECASTS WITH BEST
SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER NW COUNTIES/PARISHES THIS EVENING...CLOSER TO
SURFACE LOW TRACK...STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND DURING MORE
FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY. OVER REMAINDER OF AREA TONIGHT...THERE IS
STILL SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO MAXIMIZE
AROUND MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF STOUT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A GOOD
DRY PUNCH. EXPECT A LINEAR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT AND SWEEP ACROSS ENTIRE AREA BY LATE
MORNING TUESDAY. WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED TO
INCREASE TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES...DO NOT EXPECT OVERLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GIVEN PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM.

DURING DAY TUESDAY...STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BE
UNDERWAY AND DO NOT EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS TO WARM MUCH FROM MORNING
READINGS...LIKELY FALLING IN SOME CASES. SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING
TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOW TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LATEST ETA AND ETA EXTENSION ARE
THROWING DOUBT INTO CURRENT DRY FORECAST BY BRINGING STRONG
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES >1.5 INCHES OVER SRN
TX BY WEDNESDAY EVENING)...RESULTING IN ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
POSSIBILITIES. THE AVN IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AND KEEPS AREA DRY AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAVE INDICATED. WILL STICK TO DRY SOLUTION FOR
NOW.

IN THE EXTENDED...MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT WITH HANDLING
OF UPPER LOW TO MOVE THRU SRN STREAM AND EVENTUALLY AFFECT THE LOWER
MS VALLEY REGION....BUT 00Z MRF AND NOW 12Z AVN/UKMET ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THIS MORNING IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH CONVECTIVE
RAINS LIKELY TO BREAK OUT BEGINNING FRIDAY...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION PROGGED FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO
INCREASE RAIN WORDING FOR THIS WEEKEND. WILL INTRODUCE A DRY MONDAY
FOR NOW AS IT APPEARS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT BY THEN.
OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST GIVEN THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12Z UKMET AND 12Z
AVN...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL LIMITED AS CUT OFF LOWS IN
SPRING ARE NOT THE MOST PREDICTABLE FEATURES.

PRELIM NUMBERS...
JAN...56/63/38/66/40 94000
MEI...58/66/38/67/38 87000

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

43

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

2 hail. Local standard time, as filed.

Hail, Ashley

When: March 25, 10:30 PM CST
Where: Ashley County, Montrose
Measured: 0.88 in hail
Reported by: LAW ENFORCEMENT
Coordinates: 33.300, -91.500

Hail, Chicot

When: March 25, 11:05 PM CST
Where: Chicot County, Lake Vlg
Measured: 0.75 in hail
Reported by: EMERGENCY MANAGER
Coordinates: 33.333, -91.283

What these are

Hail: Hail three-quarters of an inch or larger, or smaller hail that caused damage, filed with the largest stone measured.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Arkansas in 2002 Every state in 2002 This day in weather history Warnings in Arkansas, March 2002

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5280902, 5280903.