Damaging Winds in Arkansas, July 23, 2002

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
245 PM CDT TUE JUL 23 2002

COLD FRONT QUITE DIFFUSE AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT MOST LIKELY
EXTENDS ACROSS FAR NERN OK WITH SFC TROF/WIND SHIFT LINE FARTHER S
INTO SE OK/WRN AR.  HAVE SEEN WIDELY SCT CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE PAST HOUR AND PLAN ON
EXTENDING 20 POPS INTO THE EVENING FOR NW AR/SE OK.  HIGH CAPES WILL
EXIST THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...ALTHO WEAK WIND PROFILES WILL
PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER.  HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER SRN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA ON
WED...AND WILL CONTINUE 20 POPS FOR SE OK. SFC RIDGE WILL PERSIST
OVER NE OK/NW AR...AND WILL STICK CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV NUMBERS
FOR HIGHS.

WARMUP WILL COMMENCE BY THURSDAY AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE...AND
WEAK DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. MAV AND ETA MOS IN A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT...AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE TWO.
STRONGER NWLY UPPER FLOW EVOLVES N OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
THU/FRI...WITH AVN SHOWING 2 WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE
RIDGE AND MOVING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. THINK MAJORITY OF CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN N OF THE AREA...ALTHO FAR NRN COUNTIES MAY BE BRUSHED BY
SRN EDGE OF CONVECTION LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.  WILL KEEP POPS OUT
OF FORECAST FOR NOW AND LET LATER SHIFTS HAVE ANOTHER LOOK.

EXTENDED MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT SRN EDGE OF WLYS WILL
REMAIN N OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A BROAD E-W RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
SRN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.  ACCORDINGLY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER THRU THE
EXTENDED...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. GFS SHOWS H85 TEMPS IN
THE 22-24C RANGE AND DECENT SLWY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FOR THE
WEEKEND...WHICH SHUD EQUATE TO AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR THE CENTURY MARK
IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS.  GFS SUGGESTS NEXT CHC OF PRECIP WILL BE JUST
BEYOND DAY 7 AS WEAK UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE W.

PRELIM NUMBERS...
TUL  70  91  70  96 /  10  10   5  10
FSM  70  92  69  96 /  20  10   5  10
MLC  70  91  68  95 /  20  10   5  10
BVO  65  91  64  96 /  10  10   5  10
FYV  63  88  63  91 /  10  10   5  10
BYV  62  85  62  91 /  10  10   5  10
MIO  66  89  65  92 /  10  10   5  10
MKO  69  91  68  94 /  10  10   5  10
F10  70  91  69  95 /  10  10   5  10
HHW  71  91  69  95 /  20  20  10  10

FORECAST ID = 18

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
115 PM CDT TUE JUL 23 2002

...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

AT MIDDAY...A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR A BENTONVILLE TO
MUSKOGEE TO OKEMAH LINE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO PRESENT OVER THE AREA. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BECOME UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
AND TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 90S. DUE TO THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AND THE PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARIES...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL
UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE FRONT.  WITH THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND THE
WEAK NATURE OF THE BOUNDARIES...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS SOUTH OF A
BENTONVILLE TO  MUSKOGEE TO OKEMAH LINE.

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK WIND SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER TODAY. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON LIFTED INDEX VALUES BETWEEN -6
AND -8 COULD LEAD TO A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON.

RISK TABLE
VALID THROUGH 1200 UTC WEDNESDAY

AREA 1...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BENTONVILLE TO MUSKOGEE TO OKEMAH LINE.
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...60
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...40
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...10

RISK AREAS DEFINE THE GREATEST RISK. PROBABILITIES ARE IN PERCENT.
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS DEFINED AS F1 OR GREATER WIND/TORNADO
DAMAGE AND/OR GOLFBALL SIZE OR LARGER HAIL.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA