Flooding and Hail in Georgia, July 23, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
315 PM EDT TUE JUL 23 2002

OVERVIEW: UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY MAIN FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GA.
COLD FRONT ACROSS OHIO INTO ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AND
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS TN VALLEY AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS WESTERN MS LATE WEDNESDAY.  MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE
MUCH NEEDED CONVECTIVE RAINS TO MOST OF CWA THROUGH THURSDAY.  UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO REGION BY WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK LOWERING
RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
MONDAY/TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO WARM CWA WIDE...INCREASING SURFACE DRIVEN INSTABILITY...AIDING IN
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF CWA THIS EVENING.
BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS IN AN AXIS BETWEEN AHN TO ATL TO CSG THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE SURFACE BASED LI VALUES ARE IN -6 TO -7 RANGE.
LARGE HAIL (DIME TO QUARTER) ALONGSIDE DAMAGING WINDS MAIN POTENTIAL
THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER PULSE TYPE STORMS.  FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS AS PWS
CLOSE TO 2 INCHES.  CONTINUE MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.  ETA/AVN BOTH INDICATE RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL JET INTERSECTION WITH SUBTLE EAST-WEST BOUNDARY ON
THURSDAY ALONGSIDE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF SUPERGEOSTROPHIC FLOW ACROSS
CENTRAL GA. PE AND OMEGA FIELDS IN LINE WITH THIS AREA. THIS WOULD
PROPOSE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/MCS DEVELOPMENT ALONG
OR NEAR WARM/STATIONARY BOUNDARY.  TEMP WISE...WILL STICK WITH
ONGOING NUMBERS

EXTENDED:  MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT BUILDING RIDGE
INTO REGION TOWARDS WEEKEND.  EXPECT DECREASING RAINFALL CHANCES
THROUGH WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS CLOSE TO GFS ENS NUMBERS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: CONFIDENT IN SHORT TERM...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION THURSDAY.  CONFIDENT LONG TERM ON DRY AND
HOT INTO NEXT WEEK.

FCSTID = 39

ATL  72 88 72 88 /  30 60 40 50
AHN  70 88 71 88 /  30 60 40 50
GVL  70 87 70 87 /  30 60 40 50
RMG  71 89 71 89 /  30 60 40 50
CSG  72 91 72 90 /  30 60 40 50
MCN  72 90 72 90 /  30 60 40 50

.ATL...
GA...NONE.

OUR DETAILED COUNTY FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT FOUS52 KFFC.
OUR AREA FORECAST FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA CITIES IS AVAILABLE
AT FLUS42 KFFC.

JCD

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-232300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1145 AM EDT TUE JUL 23 2002

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERS ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HAIL, STRONG WINDS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DISCUSSION...
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CAPES EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 2000 TO 3000 RANGE...WITH LIFTED
INDICES MINUS 2 TO MINUS 3. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW
OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS.

.FOR SPOTTERS...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF
THE SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY PERSONNEL
SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER UPDATES.

&&
FOR THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OTHER WEATHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/FFC.