Hail in Arkansas, August 2, 2002

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
255 PM CDT FRI AUG 2 2002

SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SFC HEATING.  CONVECTION LIKELY BEING
ENHANCED BY SOUTHWEST MOVING MCV THAT DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN MO
OVERNIGHT...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS.  SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS
UPPER FEATURE MOVES SSW INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  COULD ALSO A
FEW STORMS DEVELOP ALONG STATIONARY BOUNDARY...LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG AND LIS
AROUND -11 DEG C...COULD CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.

HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST OVER MISSOURI. HEAT INDICES WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE 100-105 DEG RANGE SAT/SUN AFTERNOON WITH LOW RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH ON
MONDAY...WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO TUESDAY AS EASTERLY WAVE
ALONG THE GULF COAST LIFTS INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS.  FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHERN ZONES...CHANCE POPS FSM/MLC...SOUTH TO
THE RED RIVER ON TUESDAY.  KEPT DRY FORECAST WED-FRI AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS BACK SOUTH INTO AREA.

PRELIM NUMBERS BELOW:

TUL  78  98  78  98 /  30  10   5  10
FSM  74  98  76  98 /  30  10   5  10
MLC  73  98  75  98 /  30  10   5  10
BVO  73  99  75  99 /  30  10   5  10
FYV  69  94  70  94 /  30  10   5  10
BYV  69  93  70  94 /  30  10   5  10
MIO  72  96  73  96 /  30  10   5  10
MKO  74  98  75  98 /  30  10   5  10
F10  73  98  75  98 /  30  10   5  10
HHW  74  98  74  98 /  30  10   5  10

FORECAST ID= 12

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-031200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA / NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT FRI AUG 2 2002

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
A STALLED WEAK FRONT IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE FRONT
WILL WASH OUT TODAY AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL DISSIPATE BY
EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY KEEP STORMS GOING UNTIL
DARK IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH...HOWEVER A STORM OR TWO MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE DIME SIZE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.

.DISCUSSION...
CAPE VALUES FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES FROM -6 TO -8
DEGREES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
LITTLE OR NO CAP. WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN WEAK...THEREFORE ANY
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AND POORLY ORGANIZED.
THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS INTO THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE AREAWIDE BY DARK.

RISK TABLE
VALID THROUGH 1200 UTC SATURDAY

AREA 1...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...100
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...40
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...5

RISK AREAS DEFINE THE GREATEST RISK. PROBABILITIES ARE IN PERCENT.
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS DEFINED AS F1 OR GREATER WIND/TORNADO
DAMAGE AND/OR GOLFBALL SIZE OR LARGER HAIL.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA