Damaging Wind in Arkansas, August 12, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
244 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2002

LATEST 88D RAAR LOOP WAS SHOWING SCTD TSTMS ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF
THE FA THIS AFTN. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S TO
AROUND 90 EXCEPT FOR UPR 70S OVR ERN AR WHERE TSTMS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING. DPTS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

EXPECT THE TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FA TO CONT THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
THE UPR LVL SW TROF OVR MO. THIS SW TROF WILL DAMPEN OUT AS A
SECONDARY AND MORE POTENT SW TROF CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE MS VALLEY THRU 60 HRS. THE
ASSOCIATED CDFNT WILL DROP SEWD AND MOVE THRU THE FA WED/WED NITE.
THE STRONGER UPR LVL FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA BUT BNDRY
LYR FORCING ALONG THE FNT COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHUD SUFFICE
FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF SCTD SHOWERS. THE PREVIOUS FCST HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE EXPECTED WX. THE FNT SHUD MAKE IT TO SRN SXNS OF THE FA
OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE FA BY THU WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY
AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE. WILL CONT CHC POPS FOR MAINLY THE LATER
PART OF THE WEEK...BUT LOW CHC POPS. HI PRES OVER THE SE STATES WILL
BRING A RETURN OF HUMID CONDS FOR THE WEEKEND. WILL USE A BLEND OF
FWC/MAV TEMPS.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...

MEM 073/088 073/086 070 433
MKL 069/088 070/084 067 333
JBR 071/088 070/085 065 435
TUP 070/090 071/086 071 333

.MEG...NONE.