Heavy Snow in Arizona, December 22 to 23, 2002

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
330 PM MST SUN DEC 22 2002

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FOR TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY TUESDAY
ABOVE 4000 FEET. EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER TUESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM HITS THE AREA LATE CHRISTMAS EVE AND
CHRISTMAS DAY.

.DISCUSSION...SNOW HAS ALREADY STARTED IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH MT LEMMON REPORTING SNOW AROUND 200 PM AND SNOW
LEVELS AROUND 6000 FEET.  ALSO RECEIVED A REPORT NEAR SONOITA OF
SLEET AROUND THE SAME TIME. EARLIER THIS MORNING HAD INTENTIONS TO
UPGRADE WINTER STORM WATCH TO SNOW ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT WITH WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR MONDAY. HOWEVER LOOKING AT RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE STORM SYSTEM HAS ALREADY STARTED TO
SHIFT A BIT...WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA.  THUS HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
ALL ZONE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN GREENLEE AND FAR WESTERN
PIMA.  ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERN ZONES OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL
RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL...THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO
RECEIVE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION SIGNIFICANT FOR A SNOW ADVISORY. SNOW
ELEVATIONS WILL DROP DOWN TO NEAR 3000 FEET ON MONDAY MORNING WITH
SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OF 3 TO 8 INCHES ABOVE 4000
FEET AND UP TO 14 INCHES ABOVE 6000 FEET.  AS THIS SYSTEM MOVE TO
THE EAST ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION ON THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 4000 FEET...HOWEVER NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER COOL
AND  BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.  MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER TIMING OF THE SYSTEMS IS
TYPICALLY INACCURATE AT DAY 7...THUS WILL KEEP THE CWA PARTLY CLOUDY.

.TWC...WINTER STORM WARNING ABOVE 6000 FT TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR
ZONES 29/30/32>35. SNOW ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR ZONE 19
AND SNOW ADVISORY ABOVE 4000 FT FOR ZONES 29/30/32>35.

AZZ019-029>035-231400-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
700 AM MST SUN DEC 22 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA

.DAY ONE...TODAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

A WINTER STORM WILL START TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL
BE LOWERING TO AROUND 5000 FEET TODAY WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. AS
THE FIRST PIECE OF THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO TONIGHT...THE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS SEEING A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE STRONGEST AND COLDEST PART OF THE WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. UP TO A
FOOT OF NEW SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER ELEVATION
AREAS ABOVE 4000 FEET POSSIBLY SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOWS ALSO. A
WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4000
FEET. THE WINTER STORM WILL MOVE ON EAST TUESDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK
IN THE WEATHER BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA
ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE THE LATEST WEATHER BULLETINS:
                         AWIPS ID       WMO ID
WINTER STORM WATCH   	 PHXWSWTWC	WWUS45 KTWC

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.