High Wind in Alaska, December 22 to 23, 2002

NORTH ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
230 PM AST SAT DEC 21 2002

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN AND A BUILDING  BUT TRANSIENT
RIDGE OVER BC ARE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES FOR NORTHERN ALASKA
THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...1035 MB HIGH WAY NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND
WILL SLOWLY RETREAT NORTHEASTWARD. DEVELOPING 976 MB LOW 375 MB SOUTH
OF SAND POINT WILL BE A 965 MB CENTER NEAR KODIAK BY 3PM SUNDAY AND
THEN A 976 CENTER WESTERN ALASKA RANGE 3PM MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
OCCLUSION WILL BE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST 3PM SUNDAY
AND THEN...LARGELY SHREDDED TO PIECES...ALONG OR NORTH OF THE ARCTIC
COAST BY 3PM MONDAY.

12Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON MOVING WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA LOW
NORTHWARD IN MAINLAND ALASKA ALONG ABOUT 153W...WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG LOW HEIGHT FLOW ALOFT W OF 150W LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. AVN IS LIKELY HOLDING ON TO A WELL ORGANIZED CENTER TOO LONG..
BUT EVEN THE ETA IS EFFECTIVELY MOVING THE LOW BODILY INLAND. PROBABLY
MORE OF QUESTION IS THE TRACK OF THE LOW. MODELS TRADITIONALLY TAKE
THESE FEATURES TOO FAR EAST...AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE COME INTO LINE
AS THE LOW GETS CLOSER IN. WELL HAVE TO WATCH THIS...AS THIS WILL
IMPACT BOTH INTERIOR AND WEST COAST ZONES.  (LATE BREAKING NEWS...
12Z ECMF JUST IN AND HAS LOW AT 12Z TUESDAY NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND. THIS
IS CLIMTOLOGICALLY REASONABLE AND IS LIKELY TO BE CLOSE TO REALITY.)

IN THE MID RANGE...ECMF HAS ONLY JUST STARTED TO COME IN...BUT IT
SEEMS THAT MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON BRINGING IN COLDER AIR BEHIND THE
REMAINS OF THE INCOMING STORM FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

FOR THE NORTH SLOPE...MODELS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME WITH SURFACE
WINDS...BUT I WILL CONTINUE ADVISORY FOR 203. SOME SNOW POSSIBLE WITH
REMAINS OF OCCLUSION ON MONDAY.

FOR THE WEST COAST...WITH LOW MOVING UP THROUGH CENTRAL/WESTERN INTERIOR
MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR WEST ANY SNOW FALLS. NORTH WIND WILL
PICK UP IN THE USUAL AREAS AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD.

FOR THE INTERIOR...I WILL ISSUE HIGH WIND WATCH STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR WESTERN ZONE 226...AS SOUTH WINDS BEHIND THE OCCLUSION SEEM LIKELY
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE USUAL AREAS IN ISABEL PASS.
IF THE LOW TRACKS MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN CURRENT MODELS INDICATE...
HIGH WIND ARE PROBABLE IN ZONE 225. ILL STICK WITH AN ADVISORY
IN 223 FOR DOWN VALLEY TANANA JET WINDS...THOUGH THIS MIGHT WIND UP
BEING A WARNING AS WELL. AS FOR SNOW...ONLY CHANCE IN THE NEAR TERM IS
RIGHT WITH THE OCCLUSION YUKON RIVER NORTH. MODELS HAVE GOOD SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE FRONT. BETTER CHANCE LATER AS COLD AIR STARTS TO MOVES
EASTWARD ON THE BOTTOM SIDE OF THE LOW. THIS WILL BE AN ACTIVE FEW
DAYS AFTER TOMORROW.

.AFG...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
MARINE...BWA/SCA WRN 9B.
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH WESTERN 226 STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT.

RT DEC 02