High Wind in Alaska, December 31, 2002

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
945 PM AST MON DEC 30 2002

.SHORT RANGE...NEW MODEL RUN THIS EVENING HAS THE AVN AND ETA IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE DISPOSITION OF THE LOW JUST WEST OF THE
PANHANDLE. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE SYSTEM TO VERY NEAR SITKA
BY 6AM IN THE MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN VERTICALLY
STACKED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERNIGHT. THE COLD AIR IS PRETTY MUCH
CUT OFF FROM THE UPPER LOW BUT THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ROTATING
AROUND THE SYSTEM AND OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE
COAST AND INNER CHANNELS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THERE IS STILL
PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE DEW POINTS ARE STILL RATHER LOW
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA SO THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE
FORM OF SNOW OR AT BEST MIXED. THE LATEST SATELLITE PICS INDICATE
THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD OCCLUSION ALOFT NOW MOVING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND INTO THE SOUTHERN YUKON. THE SNOWFALL HAS
FOR THE MOMENT STOPPED IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BUT SHOULD
RESUME AGAIN IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS BY MORNING. THE WINDS
HAVE EASED UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BUT WILL AGAIN INCREASE
AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL COAST SO THE WIND ADVISORIES
FOR SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA STILL LOOK OK FOR LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG RANGE...DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY THE VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE YUKON AND WILL
WEAKEN INTO A TROF TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL
BE STRONG IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. THE GRADIENT
DOES SUPPORT ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE THE SOUTHERN HALF DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD THEY WILL WEAKEN AGAIN
BY NIGHT TIME. THERE WILL BE A PUSH OF WARM AIR SO MOST OF THE
PRECIP THAT FALLS WILL BE RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN HALF AND MIXED
RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN HALF.

ON WEDNESDAY...A LOW WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC AND
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS MORE WARM ARE IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION.
AGAIN THE SOUTHERN HALF CLOUD SEE STRONG WINDS AS THE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE.

ON THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG OFF SHORE WINDS FROM
ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF FROM THE SOUTH...WILL PRODUCE A
NICE DAY FOR THE REGION. THE TEMPS WILL BE COLDER AS SOME COLD
AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. THROUGH
THE NIGHT THE SOUTHERN HALF WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF
ADVANCING LOW AND WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND RAIN.

ON FRIDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE COAST AND SPREAD WARM
AIR AND RAIN OVER MOST PLACES. SOME PLACES COULD SEE MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW AS THERE WILL BE STILL SOME COLD AIR.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF THAT HAS BEEN
ROTATING LOWS INTO THE EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH SAT AS IT BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. THIS WILL USHER IN MORE
WARM AIR...RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE PANHANDLE.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY ZONE 27..28 AND 29
MARINE...GALE..1B SOUTHERN 1A

RHM ABJ/JT

FXAK67 PAJK 310656
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
945 PM AST MON DEC 30 2002

.SHORT RANGE...NEW MODEL RUN THIS EVENING HAS THE AVN AND ETA IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE DISPOSITION OF THE LOW JUST WEST OF THE
PANHANDLE. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE SYSTEM TO VERY NEAR SITKA
BY 6AM IN THE MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN VERTICALLY
STACKED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERNIGHT. THE COLD AIR IS PRETTY MUCH
CUT OFF FROM THE UPPER LOW BUT THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ROTATING
AROUND THE SYSTEM AND OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE
COAST AND INNER CHANNELS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THERE IS STILL
PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE DEW POINTS ARE STILL RATHER LOW
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA SO THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE
FORM OF SNOW OR AT BEST MIXED. THE LATEST SATELLITE PICS INDICATE
THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD OCCLUSION ALOFT NOW MOVING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND INTO THE SOUTHERN YUKON. THE SNOWFALL HAS
FOR THE MOMENT STOPPED IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BUT SHOULD
RESUME AGAIN IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS BY MORNING. THE WINDS
HAVE EASED UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BUT WILL AGAIN INCREASE
AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL COAST SO THE WIND ADVISORIES
FOR SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA STILL LOOK OK FOR LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG RANGE...DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY THE VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE YUKON AND WILL
WEAKEN INTO A TROF TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL
BE STRONG IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. THE GRADIENT
DOES SUPPORT ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE THE SOUTHERN HALF DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD THEY WILL WEAKEN AGAIN
BY NIGHT TIME. THERE WILL BE A PUSH OF WARM AIR SO MOST OF THE
PRECIP THAT FALLS WILL BE RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN HALF AND MIXED
RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN HALF.

ON WEDNESDAY...A LOW WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC AND
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS MORE WARM ARE IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION.
AGAIN THE SOUTHERN HALF CLOUD SEE STRONG WINDS AS THE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE.

ON THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG OFF SHORE WINDS FROM
ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF FROM THE SOUTH...WILL PRODUCE A
NICE DAY FOR THE REGION. THE TEMPS WILL BE COLDER AS SOME COLD
AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. THROUGH
THE NIGHT THE SOUTHERN HALF WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF
ADVANCING LOW AND WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND RAIN.

ON FRIDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE COAST AND SPREAD WARM
AIR AND RAIN OVER MOST PLACES. SOME PLACES COULD SEE MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW AS THERE WILL BE STILL SOME COLD AIR.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF THAT HAS BEEN
ROTATING LOWS INTO THE EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH SAT AS IT BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. THIS WILL USHER IN MORE
WARM AIR...RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE PANHANDLE.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY ZONE 27..28 AND 29
MARINE...GALE..1B SOUTHERN 1A

RHM ABJ/JT