Flash Flooding in Missouri, December 31, 2002

Name: Flash Flooding in Missouri, December 31, 2002
Start: 2002-12-31T05:00
End: 2002-12-31T11:00
Location: Missouri

December 31, 2002 · NWS PAH · 2 events in 2 counties and zones

5 inches of rain in 3 days caused flooding of roads, creeks, and low-lying areas. Indian Creek north of Poplar Bluff flooded a quarter mile stretch of NN Highway.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: $25,000
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 2

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.

Unofficial measurements of around 3.5 inches of rain in 3 days caused flooding of roads, creeks, and low-lying areas. Indian Creek north of Poplar Bluff flooded a quarter mile stretch of NN Highway. A van became stranded in floodwaters along the highway. A towing company rescued 10 vehicles that were stranded on flooded gravel roads off Highways 142 and B. Police rescued a dog that was chained to its dog house in two feet of water. In Ripley County, Routes H and W were closed. Highway 158 at Harviell and sections of Highway 142 east of Naylor were impassable.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 31, 1:30 AM CST, 3 hours 30 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 31, 1:30 AM CST, 3 hours 30 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
130 AM CST TUE DEC 31 2002

AT 06Z...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING THE WESTERNMOST COUNTIES
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE TEMP AND DEW POINT GRADIENT ALONG
THE FRONT WAS SHARP...WITH ABOUT A 20 DEGREE DEW POINT DROP FROM
SPARTA /KSAR/ TO ST. LOUIS. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A NARROW
AXIS OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONT...FROM ERN ARKANSAS
ACROSS POPLAR BLUFF TO NEAR CARBONDALE.

03Z RUC MODEL/00Z ETA SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE FRONTAL
TIMING...TAKING IT ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AROUND 12Z AND
THROUGH HOPKINSVILLE BY 18Z. WITH THE FRONT MAKING SUCH STEADY
EASTWARD PROGRESS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK. HPC
DAY ONE QPF GUIDANCE SHOWS THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF
ABOUT AN INCH...OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS
EVENT THRU 06Z HAVE BEEN HEAVIEST OVER SE MISSOURI...AROUND 1.5
INCHES AT POPLAR BLUFF PER SURFACE OBS. AMOUNTS TAPER DOWN TO AROUND
HALF AN INCH OR LESS OVER WEST KENTUCKY. RUC MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE OF SOME THUNDER OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY EARLY
THIS MORNING.

RAINFALL SHOULD WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS THE 850 MB
FRONT WORKS ITS WAY EAST. THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN OVER MISSOURI
WAS VERY CLOSE TO THE 850 FRONT AT 06Z. ETA TAKES THE 850 MB FRONT
TO THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 18Z...ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY SHARP DEW POINT
GRADIENT. ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS EVEN HINT AT SOME CLEARING OVER
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECIP MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY NEW
YEARS DAY AS THE INTENSE 500 MB LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF
COAST REGION. THE GFS INDICATES ABOUT ANOTHER HALF INCH OF RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. THE ETA IS FARTHER EAST WITH THIS
DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP...SHOWING LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER
ALL BUT THE FAR SE COUNTIES. FORECAST WILL REFLECT THIS WITH HIGHER
POPS IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. PRECIP TYPE SHOULD REMAIN
ALL RAIN...ALTHOUGH SFC TEMPS MAY BE JUST A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING BY 12Z WEDNESDAY NORTH AND WEST OF KMDH/KCGI.

PRECIP WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AS THE FIRST 500 MB LOW LIFTS AWAY.
ANOTHER FAIRLY INTENSE 500 MB LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP. GFS/ETA ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER LOW...KEEPING IT NEAR OR
JUST NORTH OF A KVIH/KMDH/KWV LINE. AS EXPECTED...THE MODELS KEEP
THE STRONGEST OMEGA FIELDS AND MOST OF THE QPF NORTH OF THE LOW
TRACK. THEREFORE...CHANCE POPS STILL APPEAR IN ORDER FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ARE
VERY MARGINAL FOR SNOW OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
EVEN AS LATE AS 12Z THURSDAY. ELSEWHERE...SNOW STILL APPEARS TO BE
THE MOST LIKELY PRECIP TYPE.

NEW GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THIS
WEEKEND. PRECIP TYPE IS STILL IN QUESTION...BUT IF THE GFS SURFACE
PRESSURES VERIFY AND WE ARE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW...THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WOULD BE TOO WARM FOR ALL SNOW.

FOR TEMPS...NGM/AVN MOS ARE CLOSE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED. BOTH INDICATE SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHARP COLD FRONT. FOR HIGHS ON NEW YEARS DAY...NGM MOS IS WARMER
AND LOOKS TOO WARM GIVEN COLD NORTH WINDS AND PRECIP. WILL TREND
CLOSER TO AVN MOS.

.PAH...NONE.

MY

Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 31, 5:00 AM CST, 0 minutes before

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-011100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
500 AM CST TUE DEC 31 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY.
OVERALL...THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LAND AREAS THAT TYPICALLY EXPERIENCE HIGH WATER
PROBLEMS. THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO LET UP AFTER THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION COULD BE REQUESTED FOR REPORTS OF HIGH WATER EARLY
TODAY.

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.

Flash Flood, Butler

When: December 31, 5:00 AM CST to 11:00 AM CST
Where: Butler County, Countywide
Property damage: $20,000
Reported by: NEWSPAPER
Coordinates: 36.716, -90.407 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Flash Flood, Ripley

When: December 31, 5:00 AM CST to 11:00 AM CST
Where: Ripley County, Countywide
Property damage: $5,000
Reported by: NEWSPAPER
Coordinates: 36.653, -90.864 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

What these are

Flash Flood: Flooding that begins within six hours of the rain that causes it, or of a dam or levee failure or ice jam release, often with deadly speed.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Missouri in 2002 Every state in 2002 This day in weather history Warnings in Missouri, December 2002

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5324060, 5324061.