Hail and Damaging Wind in Alabama, May 30, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
220 PM EDT THU MAY 30 2002

SYNOPSIS: ITS SHAPING UP TO BE AN ACTIVE AFTN W/ CONVECTION
BREAKING OUT OVER WRN 1/2 OF CWFA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER LA W/ SERIES OF SHORT WAVES (S/WAVE) PINWHEELING
AROUND SYSTEM. LEAD S/WAVE & DIFFLUENCE ALOFT GENERATING SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION OVER OUR PNHDL ZONES/COASTAL WATERS, MOVING NWD.
MORE CONVECTION FIRING FURTHER W OVER LA. WEAK LOW OFF NE FL COAST
W/ E & W COAST SEA BREEZES BECOMING ACTIVE.

MODELS/PUBLIC FCST: 12Z MODELS INITIALIZE UPPER LOW OVER LA W/
SLIGHT POSITION/STRENGTH VARIATIONS THEREAFTER AS BROAD
POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO & SE CONUS.
SERIES OF S/WAVES ROTATING AROUND BASE OF TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE E/NEWD AS LOW DIGS S INTO GULF NEXT 48 HRS. DECENT UPPER
SUPPORT LINGERS THRU FRI, W/ WEAK VORT LOBE LINGERING OVER CWFA THIS
WEEKEND. WEAK LOW OFF NE FL COAST WEAKENS TONIGHT W/ SURFACE PATTERN
DOMINATED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE & LIGHT W-SW SUB-SYNOPTIC FLOW.
MODEL SOUNDINGS STAY RELATIVELY MOIST (PWATS 1.5) AND UNSTABLE
(UNMODIFIED SBCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG) THRU SUN. SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL PRIMARILY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN W/ AFTN SEA BREEZES EACH DAY.
POPS THIS EVENING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS W/ CONVECTION WINDING DOWN
LATER THIS EVENING. REMAINDER OF FCST FOLLOWS MOS POPS/TEMPS
CLOSELY.

MARINE: NO HIGHLIGHTS. GENERALLY LIGHT W-SW FLOW THRU THE PERIOD W/
LOW SEAS.

FIRE WEATHER: NO CONCERNS.

EXTENDED (MON-THU): CENTRAL GULF CLOSED LOW BECOMES OPEN WAVE &
LIFTS NE TO CAROLINAS BY TUE, FOLLOWED BY WEAK RIDGE ALOFT FOR WED.
NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM ROCKIES TO MS VALLEY THU W/ SWLY FLOW
ALOFT. COLD FRONT OVER UPPER MIDWEST DROPS S TO OH VALLEY LATE
TUE & APPROACHES CWFA LATE THU W/ FROPA JUST BEYOND THIS PERIOD AS
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS BY. AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CENTERS FROM
CNTRL FL PEN INTO WRN ATLANTIC, W-SWLY LOW LEVEL WILL DOMINATE
W/ SCATTERED MAINLY AFTN/EVE SEA BREEZE-INDUCED CONVECTION.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
TLH 067/090 068/092 3423
PFN 070/086 071/088 4423
DHN 068/088 069/090 5423
ABY 068/089 069/091 3423
VLD 067/090 068/092 2423=

.TLH...
.AL...NONE.
.GA...NONE.
.FL...NONE.

MAJ

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ750-
755-770-775-302100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1100 AM EDT THU MAY 30 2002

...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST ALABAMA EXTENDING
INTO THE GULF IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE TRI-STATE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHERE STORM
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDE WITH THE GULF SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.
OVER SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID-AFTERNOON AS THE GULF AND EAST
COAST SEA BREEZES MOVE INLAND AND INTERACT WITH THE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND COOL AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW A FEW
OF THESE STORMS TO APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. WITH WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT...STORMS WILL
BE SLOW MOVERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

ALTHOUGH SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED...SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE VIA OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TLH/ OR
LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS.

MAJ

ALZ065>069-301930-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
302 PM EDT THU MAY 30 2002

AT 302 PM EDT(202 PM CDT)...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. THERE HAD BEEN PUBLIC REPORTS OF A FUNNEL CLOUD AROUND
DALEVILLE...HOWEVER THIS REPORT HAD NOT BEEN CONFIRMED BY ADDITIONAL REPORTS
OR RADAR.

SOME STORMS IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH...PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS
AND LOW LYING AREAS.

TJT