Strong Wind in Virginia, March 6 to 7, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
350 AM EST TUE MAR 6 2001

LARGE AND STRONG CUTOFF LOW CENTERED OVR WVA AT 06Z WILL MOVE ESE
THIS MORNING PASSING OFF THE VA COAST THIS AFT. MEANWHILE...SFC
CYCLONE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL DUMBELL AROUND THE CUTOFF
MOVING SW A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING THEN SWD A BIT TNGT.

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVR THE AREA TODAY. 850MB FLOW FROM THE NW THIS
MORNING BECOMES MORE N THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH THE SW
MOVEMENT OF THE CYCLONE WILL ADVECT SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE N AND THIS IS INDICATED IN THE MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS. IN
ADDITION...LOW LVL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN JUST A BIT. THE NGM/ETA AND
AVN ALL GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF OVR THE AREA. WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS FAR WRN RDGS WHERE UPSLOPE WILL ENHANCE SHSN ACTIVITY. THOUGHT
ABOUT A WINTER WX ADVY FOR THOSE FAR WRN RDGS BUT WILL HOLD ACCUMS
JUST BELOW ADVY CRITERIA AND GO WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES
ACCUM. FURTHER E...DOWNSLOPING SHOULD KILL OFF SOME OF THE SHSN
ACTIVITY BUT WITH MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED SWD INTO THE AREA AND WITH
THE LOW LVL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING A BIT...THINK THERE WILL STILL BE
SCT SHSN ACTIVITY. WILL GO WITH 50 POPS (WHICH IS LOWER THAN THE NGM
AND AVN POPS).  SHOULD START OFF SUNNY OR P/C MOST AREAS THIS
MORNING THEN CLOUD UP LATE MORNING.

OTHER CONCERN TDA IS HIGH WINDS. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVR THE AREA
AND PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT MORE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE
AS SFC CYCLONE NUDGES SWWD. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING 40KTS AT 1000 FT
AND 55KT AT 850MB THIS AFT/EVE. WITH CLOUDINESS...NOT SURE HOW MUCH
OF THIS WIND WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SFC BUT NGM MOS IS GIVING ME
SUSTAINED 30 KTS AT THE SFC AT DCA AT 00Z SO EXPECT SOME OF THE HIGH
WINDS TO MIX DOWN. COULD SEE GUSTS NEAR 50 KTS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SKYLINE DRIVE AND THE WRN RDGS. WILL GO WITH A
WIND ADVISORY ALL ZNS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING (EXPIRATION
TIME 03Z).

CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC TNGT AND THE SFC
CYCLONE SHUD BEGIN TO MOVE EWD. MODELS STILL SHOW QUITE A BIT OF
MOISTURE ROTATING INTO THE AREA THANKS TO N CYCLONIC FLOW. WILL KEEP
A 30 POP EARLY FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT CHO AREA OTHERWISE P/C.

ON WED...THE CUTOFF AND ASSOCD SFC LOW LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON THE AREA.
WENT WITH P/C SKIES ALL ZNS AS MODELS SHOW SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA.

FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS INDICATING YET ANOTHER BRUSH WITH OLD MAN
WINTER FRI/EARLY SAT TIME FRAME. 00Z AVN CAME IN WITH A SFC LOW
TRACKING FURTHER S AND E THAN THE 12Z RUN THUS IT CAME IN COLDER
OVER OUR CWA. HOWEVER...WITH IT COMING IN FURTHER S AND E...IT KEPT
THE SIGNIFICANT QPF S AND E OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...ITS ONLY ONE
MODEL RUN AND ONLY ONE POSSIBLE SOLUTION. IM SURE WE WILL SEE
VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS OVR THE NEXT DAY OR SO FROM THE VARIOUS
MODELS.  WHETHER WE SEE ANY WINTRY WEATHER OR WHETHER ITS ANOTHER
CLOSE CALL IN THE CWA WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE NRN STREAM CUTOFF
INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND WHEN AND IF ANY
PHASING WILL OCCUR. WITH VARIOUS POSSIBLE OUTCOMES...BEST FCST AT
THIS POINT IS CHC OF RA/SN FOR FRI AND SAT AND WE CAN REFINE THIS AS
WE DRAW NEARER TO THE EVENT.

COORD WITH PIT/CRW/RNK/AKQ/PHL.

FCSTID = 15 / DMW

DCA   38  28  44  30 /  50  30  10   0
BWI   37  27  43  27 /  50  30  10   0
MRB   36  28  42  27 /  50  30  10   0
IAD   37  27  43  27 /  50  30  10   0
CHO   40  28  45  27 /  40  20   0   0
HGR   34  26  40  27 /  50  30  10   0
NHK   38  28  44  29 /  50  30  10   0

.LWX...
DC...WIND ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY FOR ZONE DCZ001.

MD...WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
     MDZ002>003...MDZ004>007...MDZ009>011...MDZ013>014...MDZ016>018.

VA...WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
     VAZ021...VAZ025>031...VAZ036>042...VAZ050>057.

WV...WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
     WVZ048>055.

MARINE...GALE WARNING MD PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE
         TIDAL POTOMAC RVR.