Winter Storm in Vermont, March 9 to 10, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
321 PM EST FRI MAR 9 2001

THE MARCH LION MOVED THROUGH ERLR IN THE WEEK...NOW IT/S TIME
FOR IT/S SLOWLY AWAKENING CUB.

THE TALE OF TWO "SEPERATE SHORT WAVES"...THKFULLY WITH THIS SYSTEM
WL SPARE US FM WHAT LOOKED LIKE ERLR IN THE WEEK A PSBL PHASING AND
NEAR REPEAT OF THE PAST STORM (ALBEIT I DOUBT TWO 20+ INCH STORMS
WITHIN 5 DAYS).

AS ELUDED TO IN ERLR AFD...THIS EVENT COMING IN TWO PHASES THAT FOR
MOST OF THE FA WL NOT COMPASS THE SAME LOCATIONS.

CRNT/SHORT TERM: THIS CAN BE SEEN ON COMPOSITE RDR. THE NRN STREAM IS
RATHER POTENT WITH A CLOSED ULVL SYSTEM. THE FIRST S/W ROTATING
UNDERNEATH HAD POSITIONED THE DVLPG SFC WAVE AND BETTER UVM FIELDS
SLGTLY N OF MDL FCSTS AND IS CRNTLY ACCNTG FOR S/S+ ACRS ADRNDKS/SRN
VT. WHILE...COASTAL ACTVTY AS MNTD BLO IS MVG INTO SNE SHORELINE.

HWVR...UPSTREAM THE NXT S/W IS FURTHER S THAN PRVS MDLS AND IS
THE MIDST OF REDVLPG SFC LOW S OF SNE WITH ALRDY LTGNG OFFSHORE.
ALL THE ENERGY WL BE FOCUSED ON THIS LOW WITH MORE MOISTURE EJECTING
INTO THE SYSTEM BUT THE BETTER UVM FIELDS SLIDING SE OF MOST OF FA.
IT APPEARS THAT NRN FA...ESP CHMPL VLY/CNDN BDR VT WL BE ON EDGE
OF BOTH QPF MAXES...THE DECAYING NORTHERN EDGE OF FIRST BURST AND
THE WESTERN DVLPG FRINGES OF THE COASTAL.

ULVL LOW DEEP BUT STL PROGRESSIVE WITH CONVEYOR BELT AGGRESSIVELY
SLIDING E AND THEN REORIENTING IN W-E DIRECTION. SYSTEM DOESN/T GO
NEGATIVE UNTIL GULF OF ME SAT MRNG...SO NOT MUCH WRAPARD INTO NC/NE
VT. ALL MDLS NRLY IDENTICAL NOW AND DON/T SEE ANY REASON TO ???.

MDL QPF...ESP ERLR "GENEROUS" AVN SHWS THIS NICELY AND WL BE LWRG
FCST AMTS ACRS SVRL ZONES...RESULTING IN WRNGS BEING DOWNGRADED IN
THE NORTH AND ADV DROPPED IN NRN CHMPL VLY.

LONGER TERM: S/W RIDGING ALREADY ON THE HEELS OF DEPARTING STORM
SAT FOR SOME CLRG SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPS AND FRESH POWDER.

NXT NRN STREAM S/W-CLIPPER DROPPING ACRS NRN GRT LAKES/ONTARIO OVRNGT
SAT INTO SUN FOR SOME -SN/-SHSN. DECENT DYNAMICS AND WAA BUT TRACK
CONDUCIVE TO -SHSN MORE THAN -SN.

XNTD: THIS QUICKLY EXITS AS WELL WITH MORE RIDGING AND SFC HIGH MVG
INTO FA SUN NGT/MON TO DELIVER ANTHR NICE...SEASONABLE DAY ON MON
BFR MORE INCLEMENT WX RETURNS TUE.

BACKING ULVL FLOW AND RETURN FLOW ARD OFFSHORE SFC HIGH WL ALLOW FOR
WAA AHD OF NXT SYSTEM. NO ARCTIC HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND MORE TROFINESS
UPSTREAM IN CENT CANADA WL PRIMARILY KEEP A SW ULVL FLOW ACRS FA.
SOME -RA/-SN MON NGT WITH LIFT ALG AHD OF PRIMARY LOW WRM FNTL BNDRY
AND ULVL S/W THEN ENTIRE COLUMN WARMS FOR A LIQUID EVENT.

AVN HAS DECENT MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL DVLPMNT TUES MVG NE ALG COASTLINE
BUT PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF TROF KEEPS HVST RAIN ERN NEW ENGLAND/
OFFSHORE.  THIS SYSTEM WORTH WATCHING AS AN INLAND SHIFT IN MAX
RAINFALL WL ADD TREMENDOUS WATER EQUIVALENT TO SNOWPACK. ATTM...GIVEN
THE LARGE AMT OF SNOWPACK AND BRF PERIOD OF WRM TMPS DON/T SEE A
LRG SCALE FLD PRBLM...BUT STAY TUNED.

THEREAFTER...SOME COOLING WITH ANTHR NRN STREAM S/W AND COLD FNT
THU WITH CHC -SHRA/-SHSN THU...BUT MAINLY CLDY AND SLGT CHC -SHRA
WED.

HYDRO: ALL PCPN IN FRZN FORM...SO NO NEAR TERM CONCERNS. HWVR...
DOUBLE-EDGE SWORD AS HVY SNOW IMPACT AND PRBLMS ERLR IN THE WEEK
WL OBVIOUSLY BE A FLOOD CONCERN AS SPRING FLOOD SEASON APPROACHES.

A SUPPLEMENTAL SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL (ESFBTV - FPUS71 KBTV) WL BE
ISSUED LTR TDY.
Z
.BTV...WNTR STM WRNG TNGT VTZ010>012
       WNTR WX ADVSY TNGT VTZ004-007>009-NYZ29>031-034-035

SLW