Winter Storm in Utah, December 2 to 7, 2001

UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1050 AM MST SUN DEC 2 2001

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS UTAH
ON MONDAY.  COLD...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...WARM FRONT RACING NORTH THROUGH NRN NV HAS CLIPPED THE
EXTREME NW CORNER OF UT.  MAIN PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL REMAIN WEST/NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...SO SPRINKLES/FLURRIES
ABOUT ALL THAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDAFTERNOON.  STRONG LOW/MID
LEVEL WINDS TRAILING THE FRONT SHOULD MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OVER
ERN NV/WRN UT.  WIND ADVISORY FOR THE WRN VALLEYS LOOKS GOOD...
THOUGH SUSTAIN WINDS MAY NOT BE AS MUCH OF A PROBLEM AS THE GUSTS.

MOISTURE OVER SRN UT SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED ALONG THE MIDLEVEL WIND MAX
ACROSS THE REGION.  LIFT PROBABLY SUPPLIED BY RELATIVELY STRONG
WARM ADVECTION AROUND 700 MB...ALONG WITH UPGLIDE INTO HIGHER
TERRAIN OVER THE FAR SOUTH.  HOWEVER...THE DEEP LIFT JUST NOT THERE
AS ALL OF THIS IS ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE UPPER LET.  THE
CURRENT SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP MOSTLY LIKELY AT ITS PEAK...SO NO
REAL EXPECTATION OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EXIST.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE OREGON/NRN CA COAST FAR MORE
IMPRESSIVE NOW THAN IT WILL BE AFTER IT MOVES INLAND.  MODELS AT 12Z
ALL PRETTY MUCH AGREE THIS LOW WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AND LIFT E-NE
TONIGHT/MONDAY.  WHAT MAY BE A PLAYER FOR THE SRN/CNTRL GREAT BASIN
WILL BE THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WHICH DIGS INTO SRN/CNTRL CA LATER
MONDAY...THEN ROTATES E-NE THROUGH THE SRN GREAT BASIN TUESDAY.
SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT ROTATES INTO WRN UT EARLY MONDAY SHOULD HAVE
A LITTLE BIT OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM THE DECAYING UPPER LOW.
LOOKING AT A MODEST PRECIP EVENT WITH THIS FIRST FEATURE...THOUGH
PROBABLY NOT ANYTHING THAT WARRANTS ANY SPECIAL TREATMENT.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...WHILE NOT OFFERING UP ANY MAJOR SNOW EVENTS...
HARDLY SUGGESTS THAT THINGS WILL BE DRY EITHER.  BROAD...MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE WHOLE OF THE REGION WILL BRING PERIODIC
SNOW EVENTS TO MOST OF THE STATE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
WHILE NO ONE EVENT LOOKS PARTICULARLY HEAVY RIGHT NOW...THE SUM OF
ALL THE PARTS COULD OFFER UP SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH COUNTRY.

UPDATE ISSUE TO END WINTER STORM WARNING...AND TO ADJUST SOME OF
THE POPS BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH.

SLC -36  CDC 535  CONGER

.SLC...WIND ADVISORY MOST WESTERN VALLEYS THROUGH TONIGHT.